According to a new analysis, weight-loss injections like Wegovy could be made for as little as $3 a month, potentially making the treatment available to millions of people in poorer countries as patents expire.
More than one billion people live with obesity worldwide, and rates are rising rapidly in low-income countries as they adopt Westernized diets and more sedentary lifestyles.
The World Health Organization designated semaglutide (sold to treat obesity under the brand name Wegovy and diabetes under the brand name Ozempic) as an essential medicine in September last year.
But world health leaders warned at the time that high prices were limiting access.
New research, published as a preprint, suggests that semaglutide could be mass produced for $3 (around £2.35) for a monthly dose in its injectable form.
Newer formulations, which are taken in pill form rather than as an injection, could be manufactured for about $16 a month.
One of the authors, Dr Andrew Hill, from the department of pharmacology at the University of Liverpool, said: “These low prices open the door to global access to an essential medicine.”
Researchers also found that semaglutide’s core patents would expire in 10 countries this year, including Brazil, China, India, South Africa, Turkey, Mexico and Canada as of March 21, opening the way for generic competition.
They identified another 150 countries where no patents had been filed, including most of Africa. Those 160 countries are home to 69% of people with type 2 diabetes and 84% of those living with obesity.
Another author, Professor François Venter from the University of the Witwatersrand in Johannesburg, said: “Drugs to treat HIV, tuberculosis, malaria and hepatitis are available in low- and middle-income countries at prices close to the cost of production, saving millions of lives and allowing generic companies to make enough profits to ensure sustainable supply. We can repeat this medical success story with semaglutide.”
The researchers warned that cheaper treatments would not address the structural factors of obesity, “including food insecurity, poverty, urbanization and commercial food environments,” and said coordinated policies and procurement planning would be needed to reap the benefits.
Dr Nomathemba Chandiwana, scientific director of South Africa’s Desmond Tutu Health Foundation and an obesity specialist, who was not involved in the study, said: “This could be very significant for South Africa and many African countries and low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) in general, where cost has been one of the main barriers to access.”
He said the analysis suggested that about 27% of adults worldwide met the criteria for drugs such as semaglutide “and, importantly, most of them live in low- and middle-income countries where access to these drugs is extremely limited.”
Chandiwana said the key question now was how health systems responsibly integrated medicines into broader obesity and diabetes care.
Obesity is linked to a number of other health conditions, including heart disease, diabetes, stroke and cancer. Every year there are 3.7 million deaths attributed to excess weight.
The number of people living with diabetes has increased from 200 million in 1990 to 830 million in 2022, with the steepest increases in low- and middle-income countries.
Semaglutide was first approved by US regulators in 2017 and costs around $200 a month in the US and £120 a month in the UK. Patents in Britain, continental Europe and the United States do not expire for five years.
The research is based on key ingredient shipment records from 2024 and 2025, and uses the same methodology that has been used in the past to accurately predict prices for generic drugs for HIV, hepatitis C and some anti-cancer drugs.
Their findings follow research by Doctors Without Borders in 2024, which found that diabetes drugs, including semaglutide, could be made and sold at a much lower price.
