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The Bula Central School in Bula, Camarines Sur, Philippines, remains flooded a week after Tropical Storm Trami brought heavy rain and strong winds to much of the country in 2024. Extreme weather patterns like this illustrate the kind of heightened climate risks associated with warming oceans and changing weather patterns. Credit: UNICEF/Martin San Diego.
– Earlier this week, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) announced that debilitating La Niña conditions are beginning to fade, with climate conditions transitioning toward ENSO-neutral, a phase in which neither El Niño nor La Niña are present and oceanic and atmospheric conditions in the tropical Pacific remain near average. The agency noted that this change could lead to the development of El Niño later in the year, a pattern typically associated with rising global temperatures and an increased risk of extreme weather events around the world.
Although these forecasts carry some degree of uncertainty (particularly during the boreal spring, when the so-called “spring predictability barrier” temporarily reduces the accuracy of ENSO predictions), they remain crucial for global climate preparedness measures. Early warnings of changes between El Niño, La Niña and neutral conditions give governments, industries and humanitarian organizations essential time to prepare for disasters.
By informing disaster planning, protecting critical infrastructure, and guiding the responses of climate-sensitive communities, these forecasts can help reduce damage, strengthen resilience, and potentially save millions of dollars in economic losses due to extreme weather patterns.
“The WMO community will closely monitor conditions in the coming months to inform decision-making,” said WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo, noting that the most recent El Niño event in 2023-2024 was one of the five strongest on record and contributed to the record-breaking global temperatures seen in 2024.
“Seasonal El Niño and La Niña forecasts help us avoid millions of dollars in economic losses and are essential planning tools for climate-sensitive sectors such as agriculture, healthcare, energy and water management,” added Saulo. “They are also a key part of the climate intelligence provided by WMO to support humanitarian operations and disaster risk management, thereby saving lives.”
According to WMO Global Production Centers forecasts, there is a 60 percent chance that ENSO-neutral conditions will persist from March to May. From April to June, the probability of El Niño developing increases to approximately 70 percent. Between May and July, the probability of ENSO-neutral conditions drops to about 60 percent, while the probability of El Niño increases to about 40 percent.
These projections suggest that global ocean temperatures will likely continue to rise as the year progresses, indicating the need for resilient climate monitoring and preparatory efforts, particularly for highly vulnerable populations in the coastal regions of Asia and the Pacific.
“When El Niño develops, we are likely to set a new global temperature record,” said climatologist Jennifer Francis of the Woodwell Climate Research Center. “Normal” was left in the dust decades ago. And with so much heat in the system, everyone should buckle up for the extreme weather it will bring.”
El Niño and La Niña are primarily driven by fluctuations in the oceans and surrounding atmospheric conditions in the tropical Pacific region, and their impacts are exacerbated by human-induced climate change. Rising global temperatures have been found to amplify the frequency and severity of extreme weather events associated with these oscillations, including extensive droughts, prolonged monsoons, devastating floods, stronger tropical cyclones, heat waves, and wildfires.
These changes alter seasonal patterns of rainfall and temperature, leading to biodiversity loss and widespread ecosystem degradation. The immediate consequences include growing food insecurity driven by declining crop yields and collapsing fisheries, along with increased risks to human health, livelihoods, water security and broader economic stability.
A joint study led by Professor Benjamin Horton, dean of the School of Energy and Environment at the City University of Hong Kong, in collaboration with researchers at Nanyang Technological University in Singapore, published in January, examined the long-term impacts of El Niño on human health. Noble Lasting impacts of El Niño on life expectancy in past and future climatesThe study was based on approximately six decades of findings from ten Pacific Rim countries, including the United States, Japan, Hong Kong, Singapore and Australia.
The study found that intensifying El Niño periods are having increasingly detrimental effects on human mortality rates and life expectancy, having increased markedly in recent years. Researchers found a strong correlation between increasingly hot El Niño events and infectious, cardiovascular and respiratory diseases, with children and the elderly facing increased risks. The study also found a direct correlation between warmer El Niño periods and disruptions to health systems as a result of infrastructure damage, greatly compounding public health challenges.
Historically, the two strongest El Niño events on record (1982-1983 and 1997-1998) were associated with reduced life expectancy of approximately one year and one-third of a year, respectively, equivalent to economic losses of approximately $2.6 trillion and $4.7 trillion. In Hong Kong alone, the 1982-83 event resulted in an estimated 0.6-year decline in life expectancy and economic losses of nearly $15 billion, while the 1997-98 event resulted in a 0.4-year decline and losses exceeding $5.8 billion.
Horton warned that intensifying El Niño events could reduce life expectancy in these regions by up to 2.8 years and lead to cumulative losses of approximately $35 trillion by 2100. While the study does not provide regional projections, current trends suggest that Hong Kong alone could face economic losses of between $250 billion and $300 billion over the century.
“El Niño is predictable,” said Professor Horton. “Therefore, with proper planning, we can reduce its impacts. To mitigate El Niño events, countries and regions need robust early warning systems, action plans for thermal health, better water management and protection for workers exposed to extreme heat. They also need resilient infrastructure, smarter agriculture that can cope with heat waves, droughts and heavy rainfall, and public health systems that are prepared for spikes in disease and pollution.”
IPS UN Office Report
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