Bitcoin rose above $70,000 on Monday as traders reacted to signals that the US military campaign against Iran may be winding down – the broader crypto market rose 3% in 24 hours, before a new round of war rhetoric from US President Donald Trump complicated the picture.
The breakthroughs were directly related to Trump’s comments in a CBS News telephone interview, where he suggested Iran had been hit so deeply that it had little left of its military might.
Oil prices fell on the news, falling from a four-year high of $118 a barrel to around $85 a barrel — a 25% slide that eased inflation fears and sent investors back to riskier assets like crypto.
Terrain rally or just noise?
Analysts quickly hit the brakes. Industry observers said it was difficult to take the headlines at face value, noting that other members of Trump’s cabinet described the conflict as still in its infancy and that US military assets are active in the region.
Crypto will follow other risk assets in the near future, with oil – rather than any specific crypto narrative – still calling the shots on macro sentiment.
Market watchers said that while the conflict may not be resolved soon, trade savings are possible, and Bitcoin could emerge as a potential store of value during the prolonged period of uncertainty.
Bitcoin enjoyed a slight gain today amid the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. Image: Steel Valley Bitcoin
Will the truce raise the price of crypto?
Others have suggested a similar reading. A true truce, they say, could lead to a strong rally in digital assets, fueled by falling energy prices, easing inflationary pressures and renewed risk appetite.
But caution prevailed. Doubts remained amid mixed signals, with Iran’s Revolutionary Guards dismissing Trump’s remarks as “nonsense” and insisting that Tehran, not Washington, would decide whether to end the war.
BTCUSD trading at $70,862 on the 24-hour chart: TradingView
Trump’s own words muddy the outlook
The uncertainty deepened when Trump posted on Truth Social hours after the CBS interview and threatened to hit Iran “20 times harder” if it moves to cut off oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz.
That same day at a Republican fundraiser in Florida, he told supporters, “We’ve already won in many ways, but we haven’t won enough.”
Reports indicate that more than 3,000 Iranian targets have been hit by US forces since the start of operations. This background – ongoing military activity, contradictory statements from the president and a rival refusing to admit defeat – puts crypto in a holding pattern.
A 3% gain is more like a headline reaction than the start of a sustained move. Until the geopolitical picture clears up, digital assets seem content to follow oil’s lead, not its own path.
Featured image from Mudrex, chart from TradingView
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