Surprising US job losses in February and a higher unemployment rate are reviving hopes of a higher rate cut, but leave BTC in a more risk-averse position near $70k.
Conclusion
- U.S. jobs fell by 92,000 in February, compared to forecasts of 59,000, a sharp reversal from January’s gain of 126,000.
- The unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, up from 4.3% expected, underscoring a fragile labor base.
- BTC is around $70,000 as traders weigh softer data on rising oil, lower stocks and changes in Fed rate cuts.
The US jobs report in February came as a negative surprise: instead of a moderate increase in wages, the US economy lost a total of 92,000 positions, compared to the consensus of more than 180,000 and a clear deterioration from the increase of 126,000 in January.
The unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, beating economists’ expectations and marking a subtle but significant break from the “stable labor market” narrative that has justified the Federal Reserve’s higher stance for so long. On paper, this kind of softness should be a boon to long-term assets and high-beta plays like crypto, as it moves the Fed closer to a rate cut in the first half of 2026.
However, the market’s initial reaction to macro trading is more contradictory. Bitcoin (BTC), which was already down overnight after crude oil rose and stock futures fell, hit $70,000 in the minutes after the release, showing no appetite for an aggressive rally. Nasdaq futures are down about 1% and the S&P 500 is down about 0.8%, while the 10-year Treasury yield is down about 4.11%, suggesting a modest bid for safety rather than full-blown “pivot” euphoria. Instead, classic hedges are rising: gold is up nearly 1%, silver is up 2%, and WTI crude is up more than 6% to around $86 a barrel, reflecting persistent geopolitical and inflationary risks linked to the Iran conflict.
For crypto, this mix is toxic: yes, weaker jobs data theoretically increases the likelihood of a decline later this year, but inflationary pressure on oil and the increased likelihood of a recession complicate this narrative. If growth slows while energy and food keep inflation on the headlines, the Fed’s room for aggressive easing will shrink, leaving bitcoin among the “digital gold” narrative and simple risk removal alongside tech and high-beta assets. With BTC hovering near $70k and CoinDesk 20 under pressure, traders are viewing this less as a green light to rally and more as another signal of stress in a macro regime defined by war-torn oil shocks, fragile credit and a Fed that has yet to declare victory.
