XRP needs to clear this key level to invalidate the bearish formation

Analyst EGRAG says that only one week of XRP breaking above a certain level will raise XRP’s long-term downtrend channel.

XRP is trying to break above the 200 EMA and $1.55, a move that market analyst EGRAG CRYPTO says shows short-term strength if confirmed by the week’s close.

Despite the rally attempt, the token remains within the descending channel that has defined its price action for months, correcting the broader trend until the break above $2.20 turns into a bullish structure.

XRP is testing the 200 EMA

In a message published on March 4 on X, EGRAG CRYPTO said that XRP is “pushing above the 200 EMA” but warned that the price is still trading within a descending channel on the weekly chart.

According to their breakdown, a week above $1.55 would weaken the current downward trajectory, while a close above $2.20 would invalidate the bearish structure and open the way to $2.70 to $3.60.

If XRP fails to return to $1.55, the analyst sees a move to $1.26 with a possible macro support coverage of $0.95 to $0.85. In a separate post, they assigned a 55% to 65% chance of deeper exploration and a 35% to 45% chance of early fracture repair.

“Structure > Sentiment,” they wrote, noting that the descending channel still defines the trend. Technical conflict occurs when derivatives and spot activity are settled. Analyst Amr Taha previously noted that XRP open interest has fallen by 70% to $203 million since October 2025.

Binance’s open interest fell below $270 million, a level last seen in April 2025 before a major rally. Historically, such resets have coincided with local bottoms as leverage is cleared, although they do not guarantee returns.

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Price action reflects a subtle recovery

At the time of writing, data from CoinGecko showed that XRP had risen nearly 4% in the past 24 hours and nearly 3% in the past week, rising from a low near $1.27.

However, the token is down more than 12% in 30 days and almost 40% over the past year. Furthermore, it is still more than 61% below the July 2025 high of $3.65.

The last 24-hour return was between $1.34 and $1.42, with a market capitalization of about $86 billion.

At the moment, the weekly close to $1.55 is of immediate interest. A decisive break above $2.20 changes the chart structure described by EGRAG, while a rejection of the 200 EMA keeps the descending channel intact and puts lower supports in play.