A cargo ship is pictured off the coastal city of Fujairah in the Strait of Hormuz in the northern Emirate on February 25, 2026.
Giuseppe Cacace | afp | fake images
Crude oil prices are expected to rise when trading opens Sunday night as market participants fear the war between the United States and Iran will spiral out of control and cause a major supply disruption.
The massive wave of airstrikes launched by the United States and Israel against Iran has killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and other senior leaders of the Islamic Republic. See the latest news here.
Kalshi Prediction Markets currently see a 79% chance of US crude oil reaching at least $73 per barrel or higher. American crude oil It closed at $67.02 per barrel on Friday, having risen 17% so far this year in anticipation of a possible attack by Iran. Energy futures begin trading at 6:00 pm ET.
Brent crude oil, the international benchmark, could post even bigger gains. Brent futures closed Friday at $73.21 a barrel, up 20% so far this year.
It is unclear who now governs OPEC’s fourth-largest oil producer. The oil market’s ultimate reaction will depend on whether the war causes a prolonged disruption to traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, the world’s biggest bottleneck for global oil trade.
Crude oil futures, YTD
President Donald Trump said Sunday that Iran wants to talk and has agreed to do so, leaving open the possibility that there may be a path to reducing tensions that avoids a large and prolonged disruption.
“They want to talk and I agreed to talk, so I’m going to talk to them,” Trump told The Atlantic on Sunday. The president told CNBC that US military operations in Iran are “ahead of schedule.”
But tanker traffic through the Strait has already effectively stopped as shipping companies take precautionary measures, according to consultancy Rystad Energy. World landmark Brent Crude oil futures could rise $20 when trading opens, the company forecast Saturday.
“Oil tankers are starting to build in the Strait of Hormuz, but it doesn’t look like anything is happening at the moment; oil tankers are definitely scared,” said Matt Smith, an oil analyst at energy consultancy Kpler.
More than 14 million barrels per day passed through the Strait on average in 2025, or about a third of the world’s total maritime crude exports, according to Kpler data. About three-quarters of those exports go to China, India, Japan and South Korea, according to the company.
Other analysts see a more modest jump depending on how the conflict plays out. Prices should rise at least $3 to $5 a barrel when trading begins, said Andy Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates.
The worst-case scenario is an attack by Iran on Saudi oil infrastructure followed by a complete closure of the Strait, Lipow said on Sunday. Oil prices would rise between $10 and $20 in this scenario, the analyst said, calling it a 33% probability.
Brent crude oil futures, to date
Barclays said Brent could hit $100 a barrel when trading begins as the market grapples with the threat of a potential supply disruption.
“How this will end is extremely uncertain at the moment, but in the meantime oil markets will have to face their worst fears,” Barclays analyst Amarpreet Singh told clients in a note on Saturday. “It’s hard to overstate the potential effect on oil markets.”
