Americans looking for work have another thing to worry about: workers holding on to their jobs with an iron grip.
People’s willingness to quit their jobs is widely seen as a barometer of confidence in the labor market. And right now, this indicator is red. The share of workers who left their jobs in January was 2%, Labor Department data showed, and February survey data from the New York Federal Reserve showed that the likelihood of workers voluntarily leaving next year fell to a record low in 2013.
–
–
“Your probability of losing your job hasn’t gone up that much. But if you do lose your job, the probability of finding a new one — it’s gotten harder, it’s gone down,” Laura Ulrich, director of North American economic research at the Real Employment Lab, told Yahoo Finance.
“This is especially true in sectors with low recruitment and low attrition rates,” she added, “where they just don’t see room for new people.” Ulrich pointed to government, financial activities, and manufacturing, which all have rates below 1.5%.
In an economy that’s barely keeping up with wage growth outside of the healthcare sector, and with the constant fear of AI-induced layoffs, it only makes sense that incumbents are treated like precious jewels.
But that leaves those without them stuck between stable employment and anxious employment. There were only 0.94 jobs for every unemployed person in January, compared to about 2 positions for every out-of-work American in 2022’s white-hot job market.
Read more: Worried about job security? Take these 5 steps now to protect your finances.
A sign with information about employment is displayed during a job fair in Dallas on Jan. 14, 2026. (AP Photo/LM Otero) ·Associated Press
The Federal Reserve badge book pointed to the trend this month, with the Boston Fed reporting an increase in applicants, as well as “some experienced workers applying for junior-level positions.” The New York Fed also noted that “labor supply generally continues to outpace labor demand,” while the Cleveland Fed found that “the availability of qualified candidates has increased as large firms slow hiring.”
Do you have a story about navigating the job market? Visit Emma Aukerman here.
This fierce competition for jobs, combined with the enthusiasm of workers, gives employers the upper hand. Wage growth for job changers is slowing, according to data tracked by ADP, with premiums for employers hitting a record low in February in data related to 2020.
Taylor Bowley, an economist at the Bank of America Institute, also flagged the pattern in a March 3 note, writing that “median wage growth moderated for both men and women as labor shifts, with January’s rate measuring less than half the 2019 average.”
“Looking ahead, if ‘low-rent, low-fire’ continues to characterize the labor market, the job-switching premium could be further compressed, limiting the extent to which workers can secure meaningful pay bumps by changing roles,” Bolli wrote.
Read more: Can you get a mortgage without a job? Yes – how about here.
Jasmine Escalera, career expert at MyPerfectResume, said an October survey by the employment assistance platform found that 65% of workers plan not to find a new job in 2026.
The question is, is it “because they are satisfied, or is it because they are afraid?” Escalera said. Signs point to the latter, at least for some.
“We’re seeing people take longer to find jobs,” Escalera said. “And it’s not about qualifications or skills – it’s about competition in the market. For job seekers, it’s really sad.”
In fact, long-term unemployment is on the rise, with a quarter of Americans out of work having been unemployed for 27 weeks or longer as of February. Anyone watching this trend who still has a job — no matter how bad it is — might be a little leery of jumping ship.
Lauren Thomas, an economist at Dell, a human resources firm, said that seemed especially true for workers under the age of 24, who had the highest rate of job layoffs in 2024. Now, she said, they generally stay where they are and have experienced the fastest decline in job switching among other age groups.
Their concern is not without reason. In New York City alone, long a place where young job seekers flock, entry-level jobs are set to drop by more than 37% between 2022 and 2024, according to a recent report from the Center for the Urban Future. If you’re early in your career, looking for a new job can put you in the toughest job market in years.
“There are good reasons for people to leave their jobs, whether it’s to move to a location with better opportunities, or better pay, or changing sectors, or moving to a new city,” Ulrich said. “When the labor market is used up, and the removal rates are low — which they are — what happens is you don’t have an opportunity for new people to enter.”
Emma Aukerman is a reporter covering the economy and labor for Yahoo Finance. You can reach her emma.ockerman@yahooinc.com.
Sign up for the Mind Your Money newsletter
Click here for the latest personal finance news to help you invest, pay off debt, buy a home, retire, and more.
Read the latest financial and business news from Yahoo Finance
