Will ETH Fall Above $1.8K Amid Growing Macro Uncertainty?

Ethereum is still trading with a heavy bias after the sharp breakout at the end of January, and the market is now trying to form a base around the $1.9k area. During the higher period, the price structure remains low, and during the war in the Middle East, any recovery at this time is best considered as a relief move, unless ETH recovers the main resistance levels and turns them into support.

Ethereum Price Analysis: Daily Chart

On the daily chart, ETH is still below both the 100-day and 200-day moving averages, which are around $2,700 and $3,400 respectively. Both moving averages have lower slopes and act as dynamic resistance. Assets also remain within a broader bearish structure, with the last impulsive leg below leaving a clear sign of a breakout to breakdown. The nearest upper supply zone is around $2,300 to $2,400, where a bearish order block is located.

The constructive part is that ETH has stopped the downtrend for now and is making a base above the $1,800-$1,900 support band. The daily pulse also seems to normalize. The RSI has recovered from oversold conditions and is in the middle zone, which often occurs during consolidation phases. However, the burden of proof is on the buyers, as a loss of $1,800 opens up another side towards the next demand zone around $1,500.

4-hour ETH/USDT chart

On the 4-hour chart, ETH is moving sideways after the surrender move and the price action is compressing in the range with certain angles. The line above the sand is around $2150, which acted as a repeat/ceiling swing; buyers struggled to hold above it and pullbacks pushed the asset back into the range. If ETH can clear $2,150 and hold above it, the next upside magnet is the $2,300-2,400 supply zone.

Until this breakout occurs, the market is still vulnerable to another low. The key lower level of the $1,800 base remains. It has been defended many times, but repeated tests weaken the support. Thus, a fresh breakout would increase the likelihood of a quick move to $1,600, with $1,500 as a deeper capitulation support zone if risk sentiment deteriorates again.

Sentiment analysis

To read the sentiment of the market, the Coinbase Premium Index is returning to the neutral line after spending a long time in deep negative territory since November 2025.

That said, the broader context is still important. A bearish recovery while the price remains near $1,900 is more consistent than a full trend reversal. If the premium can remain positive while ETH regains $2,150 and moves higher, it reinforces the case that spot buyers are back in control. If not, this indicates that the bid is still volatile and the market may go down another leg instead of making a steady recovery.