March 3, 2026
2 my read
Add us on GoogleAdd SciAm
Will El Niño return in 2026? Here’s what we know so far
Weather events like El Niño can be notoriously difficult to predict, but this year could mark their return
Satellite departure of sea surface temperature in the Pacific Ocean for the month of October 2015, where darker orange-red colors are above normal temperatures and are indicative of El Niño.
It has been two years since El Niño ravaged the globe. The climate pattern, which is taking place due to changes in the Pacific Ocean, brought heavy rainfall along the western United States and drought in Southeast Asia, and brought with it some of the highest global temperatures ever recorded. And this year, UN forecasters predict that the climate phenomenon may return – but they warn, it is still too early to say anything for sure.
El Niño’s power rests in a combination of ocean temperatures and wind. During El Niño events, warm ocean water moves from the western Pacific Ocean toward North and South America. The changes in ocean temperatures can trigger a number of weather impacts across the globe – for example, it can mean heavy rain in the southern United States, while regions on the other side of the Pacific Ocean tend to dry out. It’s opposite, La Niña, tends to cause cold, wet weather in the northern United States, a more active Atlantic hurricane season, and more rainfall in parts of Asia and Australia.
These patterns tend to fluctuate – the latest La Niña is ongoing but weak. And on Tuesday, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) announced that there is a moderate chance of El Niño returning in 2026.
On supporting science journalism
If you like this article, please consider supporting our award-winning journalism by subscribes. By purchasing a subscription, you help secure the future of impactful stories about the discoveries and ideas that shape our world today.
According to WMO, the chance of El Niño is around 40 percent between May and July this year. Predictions are preliminary and subject to change. Predicting whether this will be an El Niño year this far in advance is difficult, in part because global climate patterns are complicated, and because it is still early days.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) currently puts the chances of an El Niño forming at about 50 to 60 percent for late summer, though those predictions are also subject to change.
NOAA classifies El Niño and La Niña events in part by looking at average temperatures in a part of the Pacific Ocean: If temperatures exceed 0.5 degrees Celsius above normal for an extended period, they are El Niño conditions. If they fall 0.5 degrees Celsius below normal, it is La Niña.
But even with all the uncertainty, an early warning that El Niño is coming can be valuable for countries to prepare for the accompanying weather. The predictions are intended to manage disaster risk – and ultimately save lives, Celeste Saulo, WMO’s secretary-general, said in a statement.
“Seasonal forecasts of El Niño and La Niña help us avoid millions of dollars in economic losses and are important planning tools for climate-sensitive sectors such as agriculture, health, energy and water management,” Saulo said.
It’s time to stand up for science
If you liked this article, I would like to ask for your support. Scientific American has served as an advocate for science and industry for 180 years, and right now may be the most critical moment in its two-century history.
I have been one Scientific American subscriber since I was 12 years old, and it helped shape the way I see the world. SciAm always educates and delights me, and inspires a sense of awe for our vast, beautiful universe. I hope it does for you too.
If you subscribe to Scientific Americanyou help ensure our coverage is centered on meaningful research and discovery; that we have the resources to report on the decisions that threaten laboratories across the United States; and that we support both budding and working scientists at a time when the value of science itself is too often not recognised.
In return, you receive important news, captivating podcasts, brilliant infographics, can’t-miss newsletters, must-see videos, challenging games, and the world of science’s best writing and reporting. You can even give someone a subscription.
There has never been a more important time for us to stand up and show why science is important. I hope you will support us in that mission.
