Key words
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After the escalation of tensions between the US and Iran, the price of Bitcoin fell to almost $63,000.
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Analysts warn of deep downside risk.
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CCN analysis shows that $60,263 remains a key support level to watch.
Bitcoin remained close to $63,000 at the end of a volatile week on Monday that saw the world’s biggest cryptocurrency fall in the wake of escalating US-Iran tensions, before recovering some of its losses.
The coordinated US and Israeli strikes on Iran and subsequent retaliatory action across the region rattled global markets, sending investors into traditional safe havens such as gold and oil while weighing on risk-sensitive assets.
With Bitcoin still roughly 47% below its peak, analysts are debating whether the rebound marks a cyclical low — or if a deeper decline of 60% to 70% may be in store.
Bitcoin dropped as low as $63,038 over the weekend after headlines of a military exodus crossed the wires.
It later stabilized in the $66,000 range, trading around $66,381 at the time of writing.
Price action unfolded as broader risk sentiment worsened.
Gold rose more than 2.5% while oil rose above $80 on fears of supply disruptions.
Unlike gold, Bitcoin trades around the clock and was one of the main assets available for immediate placement during the weekend shock.
In 24 hours, approximately $657 million was lost in profitable crypto positions, with long positions accounting for 75.6% of the total.
Crypto analyst Darkfrost argued that Bitcoin’s current 47% decline remains modest compared to previous markets.
“With a 47% decline (daily close), we are still far from the intensity seen in previous bear markets,” wrote Dark Frost at X.
He added that the reaction of investors today indicates a change in sentiment.
“Just imagine the reaction from investors and the media if such a correction happened again. With only a 47% drop today, some are already claiming that Bitcoin is dead.”
However, over time, the decline in the beer market has gradually become less severe, he noted.
“If this pattern continues, one can reasonably expect a decline in the 60% to 70% range,” said Dark Frost.
A 70% drop means that Bitcoin will drop 70% from its period peak, not from its current price.
If we use the previous peak of around $123,000, a 70% reduction would equate to around $36,900.
Laci Zhang, a research analyst at Bitgate Wallet, told CCN that the latest move reflects bitcoin’s growing sensitivity to macro liquidity rather than geopolitical hedging.
