Bitcoin held steady above the $70,000 mark, extending its recent gains as global risk assets rallied across stocks, commodities and cryptocurrencies.
Bitcoin has shown a nearly 10% recovery after an intense week of geopolitical panic. Stocks followed suit, with S&P 500 futures returning to 6,840.
While crypto traders celebrate, the bond market is cautious. Is this a lull before a sustained recovery, or is the bond market trying to tell us something that stock and crypto investors are ignoring?
The bond market worries that rising oil prices will soon make commodities more expensive. This complicates the situation for the Federal Reserve. Before this week, the market saw an 80% chance of two price cuts this year. Now? This probability is reduced to less than 50%.
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Why are prices rising, but stress is increasing?
The Fed is trapped.
Oil reaches 82 dollars. Increase in inflation.
Shares are sold. Decreased growth.
The rate is 3.5-3.75%. No room to cut.The next meeting is on March 17. They do nothing.
And doing nothing is the worst possible outcome.
Stagflation is not a theory. Here it is. pic.twitter.com/5oY8m7avBG
— Michael A. Lead, CFA (@leadlagreport) March 5, 2026
Just as fears of tariffs can cause sudden price cuts by changing the outlook for inflation, an energy shock forces the Fed to hit the brakes, not the gas. If yields rise to 4.25% or higher, it could drain liquidity from the crypto market, no matter how high the charts are currently.
The week began with a sharp sell-off, fueled by a surge in crude oil prices fueled by fears of a conflict in the Strait of Hormuz. Markets hate uncertainty, and the initial reaction was a classic flight to safety, with Bitcoin plunging to $65,000. However, after the promise of US naval support for the tankers, the market quickly stabilized, allaying immediate fears of a supply crunch.
But here’s the twist: while stock and crypto prices have recovered, the stress hasn’t gone away.
The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note rose for four straight days, rising from 3.93% to 4.15%. While we’ve seen how institutions often buy dips during geopolitical tensions, the bond market is signaling that underlying economic conditions are tightening, not easing.
However, the most prominent trend is that Bitcoin has shown surprising stability. Currently, it is not only a risk asset, but also acts as a hedge against geopolitical turmoil. If the oil situation stabilizes without an increase in inflation, those Fed rate cut conditions may return just as they disappeared.
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Bitcoin’s main level to watch is $74,000
Bitcoin is currently trading comfortably above the $70,000 psychological level, but the real test is higher.
The watch level is $74,000. That was Wednesday’s peak during the recovery before sellers pulled back. If Bitcoin can break and close above $74,000, it would indicate that demand is strong enough to ignore the warning signs from the bond market.
Experts such as Jan van Eck have previously pointed out that Bitcoin cycles do not only accept price sensitivity, which supports the bullish breakout mode.
Brian Tan, a trader at Wintermute, noted that “the price market is showing tension in this rally.” Essentially, you have a stable economy facing a potential energy shock. History tells us that this particular combination often forces the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates high, which usually acts as a cap on risk assets like Bitcoin.
Conversely, the bear case is activated if $70,000 is not maintained. The $65,000 level is important support at the end of the week.
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Main roads
- Bitcoin and stocks stabilized after the initial shock, but the 10-year Treasury yield quietly rose to 4.15%, indicating caution.
- Investors have significantly reduced their expectations for Fed support, and the odds of two rate cuts have dropped from 80% to 50%.
- An important resistance level to watch is $74,000; A breakout of this cancels the bond market’s bearish signal.
Article Bitcoin, Stocks Stabilize, But Bond Market Uncertain: Fed Cuts Rates Now? appeared first on 99Bitcoins.
