Why Yemen’s Houthis are out of Israel-US fight with Iran – for now | Israel-Iran conflict news

Sana’a, Yemen – Israel-US attacks on Iran have thrown the wider Middle East region into turmoil. From Tehran, tensions spread, affecting many Arab cities, including Abu Dhabi, Doha, Kuwait City, Manama and Beirut.

Amidst this wave of military escalation hitting several countries, Yemen has remained – perhaps surprisingly – calm. Since Israel’s genocidal war on Gaza began in October 2023, the Iran-allied de facto Houthi movement in northwest Yemen has carried out repeated attacks on US and Israeli targets.

But since the week since the US-Israeli strikes on Iran began on February 28, the Houthis have limited their support for Tehran to rhetoric and mass protests condemning the strikes.

It is uncertain whether they will continue to break away from the conflict. Analysts say the rebel group’s involvement is still possible, and its current restraint is part of a strategy of patience.

“Houthi intervention remains a possibility, and it could take the form of a phased escalation,” Luca Nevola, senior analyst for Yemen and the Gulf at the ACLED conflict monitor, told Al Jazeera. “At this point, the main Houthi priority is avoiding direct US and Israeli retaliation.”

Last August, Israeli strikes killed at least 12 high-ranking Houthi government members, including Prime Minister Ahmed al-Rahavi and Chief of Staff Mohammed al-Ghumari, in an airstrike in Sanaa. The group’s losses were heaviest during confrontations with the US and Israel.

That incident, combined with other attacks in the past year, has made the Houthi leadership more cautious and risk heavy air operations over areas under its control.

“The group fears the possibility of the beheading of Israeli intelligence and leadership,” Nevola said.

Despite the losses the Houthi group suffered last year, it is not completely incapacitated and it can launch attacks on opponents.

Nevola explained, “The Houthis will resume attacks if they are drawn directly into the conflict, either through US or Israeli strikes, or through renewed domestic advances by anti-Houthi forces in Yemen.”

Houthi chief Abdel-Malik al-Houthi said this week that “Yemen clearly stands with the Islamic Republic of Iran and the people of Muslim Iran.”

He emphasized that “hands are on the trigger” regarding the military escalation, adding that his group’s engagement in war could happen at any moment depending on developments.

Holding the reserve card

Yemeni political commentator Sadam al-Huraibi said Yemen’s Houthis would enter the war if Iran requested it. “Tehran does not want to use all its cards at once and aims to save the Houthi group for the upcoming phase,” Huraibi told Al Jazeera.

“I believe it is only a matter of time before the Houthis enter the war,” he said. “If the Israeli-American attacks on Iran do not stop, the Yemeni group will not stand idly by without end. The Houthis are preparing for war in Sana’a and the provinces they control.”

The Houthis are still capable of creating chaos in the Red Sea – where they have launched repeated attacks on shipping as part of a campaign to support Gaza – and could launch drones and missiles toward Israel, Huraibi said. “This move may materialize, and it depends on the timing of the Houthis and Iran.”

Nevola Huraibi agreed, “Now that all axis (resistance or pro-Iranian regional groups) actors are under direct attack, ensuring long-term operational continuity from Yemen – and preserving the Houthi regime as a safe haven – may be a strategic priority.”

Adel Dashela, a Yemeni researcher and non-resident fellow at the Mesa Global Academy, said the Houthis do not want to officially declare war at this time in order to portray themselves as an independent faction, not subject to Tehran’s directives.

Dashela told Al Jazeera, “In practice, the group is part of the axis of resistance, and the war could reach it. The Houthi leadership is still waiting to see how the situation develops. It does not want to make hasty decisions to get involved in the US-Israeli war in Iran.”

Possible targets

The Houthis are capable of hitting multiple targets with missiles and drones.

“If the conflict continues and the Houthis feel threatened by direct attacks, they may expand their targeting to include Israeli territory, US warships and military assets in the region, and Israel’s partners in the region such as the UAE and Somaliland,” Nevola said.

A sustained barrage of Iranian missiles at Israel and the Gulf states over the past week may have compromised the deterrence systems. So Houthi attacks could be more devastating.

Nevola explained, “Houthi long-range drone and missile attacks against Gulf states and Israel may prove more effective in the post-conflict phase, when air defense systems may face resupply constraints. Opening up an additional southern front could put further pressure on Israel’s air defenses.”

From the end of 2023 to 2025, the Houthis conducted a military campaign of attacks on ships through the Red Sea corridor.

The operation killed at least nine sailors and sank four ships, disrupting shipping in the Red Sea, through which nearly $1 trillion in goods passed each year before the war.

US-Israeli strikes have killed many of Iran’s political and military leaders in a matter of days.

The assassination of senior figures could weaken the Iranian regime, whose fall remains a priority for the US and Israeli leadership.

Al-Huraibi said the collapse would be “detrimental” to the Houthi group in Yemen, whether weakened or ousted.

The group will be militarily affected as the flow of Iranian weapons smuggled into Yemen shrinks or stops altogether. This is a formidable challenge for the group.

In 2022, the United Nations found that thousands of weapons seized in the Arabian Sea may have come from a single port in Iran.

A report by a UN Security Council panel of experts on Yemen suggested that boats and land transport were used to smuggle weapons made in Russia, China and Iran into Yemen. Iran has repeatedly denied smuggling arms to Yemen.

Moreover, according to Huraibi, recent attacks on Iran’s leadership dealt a significant blow to the Houthi group’s morale.

“Iran is a religious icon (for the Houthis). When the icon is defeated, the morality is not the same. The fall of the Iranian regime could herald the collapse of its proxies in the region, including Yemen.”

Shock and anxiety

At the grassroots level in Yemen, the US-Israeli attacks on Iran were a major shock and cause for continued concern.

Mohammad Yahia, 28, a resident of Sana’a, told his family on the first day of the strike to collect cooking gas and food items such as flour, rice and cooking oil. “Every time tensions rise, prices go up,” he said.

Yahia expected the Houthis to soon launch missiles and drones in support of Tehran, inviting war into Sanaa.

“I thought the airstrikes on Sana’a would start in a few hours. I made sure to buy basic things and stay at home during the first few days of the war.”

Contrary to their expectations, the Houthis have not entered yet.

“I never imagined such a day would happen: the region is at war and the Yemenis are watching,” Yahia said. “Ultimately, the Houthis will decide whether Yemen enters this conflict.”