XRP has remained under constant pressure since July 2025, losing more than 60% of its value from its all-time high and setting a constant downward trend. What initially appeared to be a corrective phase gradually turned into structural weakness as highs and lows signaled a deterioration in market-wide sentiment. Recent macroeconomic developments have only exacerbated this volatility.
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According to analyst Darkfost, the broader crypto environment has been strongly affected by the escalation of geopolitical tensions involving the United States, Israel and Iran. The situation worsened over the weekend when the first military strikes began shortly after traditional financial markets were closed. This time was important. With stocks offline, crypto has become a prime location for immediate risk price changes, increasing volatility and uncertainty.
The XRP chain data reflects this volatility. Inflows into Binance have skyrocketed, with more than 472 million XRP — roughly $652 million — transferred to the exchange in the past week alone. This is the biggest entry period in February.
Inbound trading risks signal defensive positioning
The amount of recent XRP imports to Binance shows a clear change in behavior among holders. Large-scale transfers to exchanges are rarely unintentional. While not every deposit will turn into an instant sale, placing tokens in a liquid location increases discretion. In periods of heightened uncertainty, this discretion often leans toward defense.
As hundreds of millions of XRP move into exchanges in a compressed period of time, it changes the short-term supply equation. Even if only a portion of these tokens are sold, the apparent expansion of available liquidity can put pressure on bids and weaken the depth of the market. In thin environments, such currents can disproportionately increase instability.
However, context is important. Exchange inflows during geopolitical stress may reflect prudent liquidity management rather than coordinated allocations. Investors sometimes pool holdings in centralized platforms to hedge, pivot or react quickly — not necessarily exit.
An important variable is persistence. If imports remain high, followed by an increase in the trade balance and a stabilization of the net negative flow, the probability of a wider distribution increases. Conversely, if imports decrease and stocks stabilize, this movement may be temporary.
At this stage, XRP is sitting at a behavioral inflection point. Monitoring of exchange balances and further network flow trends will clarify whether this indicates a structural breakdown or a short-term panic settlement.
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XRP is struggling below the major moving averages
XRP’s 3-day chart reflects a clear structural deterioration since its peak in mid-2025. After breaking above the $3.30-$3.50 zone, the price entered a continuous sequence of highs and lows, confirming the transition from expansion to distribution. The recent breakout accelerated after XRP missed the 100-day and 50-day moving averages, both of which have now rolled over and are acting as dynamic resistance.
Currently trading near $1.35, XRP is well below its 200-day moving average (red), which is in the $1.90-$2.00 range. This level used to act as support during earlier stages of consolidation, but has now become oversupply. The ability to recover in that area suggests that sellers are keeping the broader trend under control.
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The increase in volume during extreme candles, especially at the end of February, points to liquidation movements, rather than regular reversals. Although the price is trying to stabilize from the $1.30 area, the structure resembles a relief consolidation within the bearish regime rather than a confirmed base.
In order for the momentum to change significantly, XRP needs to retrace its 200-day moving average and set highs on sustained volume. Until then, rallies will likely face supply and the broader technical bias will remain defensive.
Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com
