In 1241, a Mongol army marched into Hungary, creating inexplicable chaos. Most of the religious elite of the country were killed. The plunder, carnage and famine left in their wake by the foreign invaders left an undeniable imprint on the Hungarian mind.
Centuries later, as Hungary faces crucial parliamentary elections in April, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban is once again tapping into the demons of Hungary’s past.
Fidesz, Orbán’s far-right party, is focusing on a new, modern-day foreign threat — the threat posed by Ukraine. As part of its re-election strategy, the Hungarian government has sought to stoke tensions with Ukraine.
“Orbán has repeatedly opposed European funding and military support for Ukraine’s struggle,” said Michael Ignatieff, a former Canadian opposition leader and historian who was rector of Budapest’s Central European University, which Orbán’s government forced to move abroad in 2017.
“The personal abuse of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and the claim that Zelensky will drag Hungary into war and Hungarian soldiers will die is new in the campaign,” Ignatieff added.
Threat of imminent war
Fidesz “campaigned initially with domestic and foreign policy statements,” said Richard Demeny, a foreign policy analyst at Political Capital, a research firm in Budapest. “Domestic policymaking has focused on the Orbán administration’s achievements over the past 16 years.”
Yet the messaging has so far done little to win over voters who want more from government in areas like public education and health. “To distance themselves from these shortcomings and shape a public agenda, Fidesz has used fear-based narratives to exacerbate fear and anxiety in parts of society threatened by imminent war,” Demeny said.
Orban’s party has been lagging in the polls since last year, but the center-right Tisza party led by Peter Magyar is gaining momentum. Magyar’s supporters hope to end Orbán’s 16-year rule.
In response to his rival’s lead in the polls, Orban has stepped up his attacks on Ukraine. In a campaign video released by the ruling party in February, a young Hungarian woman asks about her father. The video then cuts to a blindfolded soldier in Hungarian uniform shot in the head and falling to the dirt floor. One headline reads: “It’s just a nightmare now, but Brussels is preparing to make it a reality. Fidesz is the safe bet!”
Fidesz has framed the 2026 elections as a choice between war and peace, and the video suggests that a Tisza victory would force Hungarians to go to war.
“For the first time, Orbán directly alleges the existence of political coordination and agreement between the Ukrainian administration, EU institutions and the Hungarian opposition to remove him from power and install a pro-Ukraine government in Hungary,” said Daniel Hegedes, deputy director of the Institute for European Politics.
From the cosmopolitan streets of Budapest to small villages in the countryside, large propaganda billboards are being used to try to divert “sections of society threatened by imminent war,” Demeny said.
read the headline of a pro-government billboard featuring a joint photo of European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, Zelenskiy and Magyar.
‘No oil, no money’
At the center of Hungary’s escalating tensions with Ukraine, Orban called a “Ukrainian oil blockade” in a video posted on X on March 17.
Ukraine and Hungary have been locked in an escalating feud since Russia halted oil deliveries to Hungary and Slovakia in January due to damage to a pipeline that crosses Ukrainian territory. Ukrainian officials have blamed the damage on Russian drone strikes.
Orban has accused Zelensky of deliberately withholding oil supplies — claims Zelensky denies. In retaliation, Orbán vetoed a vital €90 billion EU loan to cover Ukraine’s military and economic needs for two years.
“If President Zelensky wants to receive his money from Brussels, he should reopen the friendship oil pipeline,” Orbán said in the video.
Orban has accused Ukraine of plotting to attack him and his family, releasing a video in March showing him talking to his daughters on the phone and warning them of the threat.
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“Orbán’s basic political method is to create enemies. First Brussels, then George Soros and now Peter Magyar, all are portrayed as pernicious alien forces conspiring to harm Hungary. Orbán then portrays himself as a brave, heroic defender of the Hungarian nation,” Ignatieff said.
Yet Orban may have met his match in someone like Magyar, Ignatieff added, “ex-Fidesz himself and too smart a politician to cede nationalist ground to Orban.”
“Magyar tours the countryside, sings patriotic folk songs with his supporters, waves the national flag, quotes Hungary’s great poets and effectively competes with Orbán in the battle for the nationalist vote.”
Orbán’s strategy may still work. In his book “The Hungarians”, historian Paul Ledvay wrote that the main psychological effect of the Mongol invasion was the conclusion that “we Hungarians are alone”.
Distrust of foreigners, even though they urgently need allies in times of extreme danger, “can be effective in focusing Fidesz and undecided voters on an existential threat,” Demeny said.
(with AP)
(tags to translate)Europe
