Why Texas Tech could have been a lousy final four bet without JT Toppin

We certainly have a tremendous opportunity to make the Final Four at Texas Tech.

JT Toppin suffered an injury a few games ago that ruled him out for the remainder of the season. He is arguably a top 10 player in the NCAA and is a huge loss for the Red Raiders.

But I think we’re getting a bit of a discount because of that injury.

Christian Anderson is one of the best point guards in the NCAA and the offense runs through him. Not only is he an efficient scorer, but he is also one of the best facilitators in the country. He currently ranks 25th in assist percentage and is shooting over 40 percent from deep.

The key for Texas Tech is that it’s not an offense that has to rely on specific players like Toppin. They are replacing his minutes with Luke Bamgboye and Josiah Moseley.

The substitution works because of Bamgboye and Moseley’s game style. Both players can run pick-and-rolls with Anderson and boast enough athleticism to consistently finish at the rim. He is also a player who can change the game defensively, as he has combined for 15 blocks in the last three games without Toppin.

Texas Tech was already relying heavily on 3-pointers despite Toppin dominating the paint. Nearly 50% of their shots come from deep, and their 39.5% shooting percentage from deep ranks sixth in the NCAA.

We’ve already talked about how Anderson can shine from deep, but Donovan Atwell is the best shooter. He’s shooting just over 45% from beyond the arc at elite volume. He will continue to see elite volume with Anderson leading this offense.

Jaylen Petty isn’t as good a shooter as some of the other options, but he’s still shooting 36.7% on the season. He adds a high-end third head to this offense, with LeJuan Watts and Tyeree Bryan among the other players capable of producing scoring success.

But the biggest key here is the seed. If they want a real chance at the Final Four, the team will need to remain a No. 5 seed or better. Please keep this in mind. A big upset could happen, but it’s not something you can expect, especially in this tournament.

If a team falls in the top 6, they will have to go through the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd seeds, which feels relatively impossible in this tournament. If they stay above the 4th line, 2/3 will be eliminated from each other, meaning only 2 of the 3 seeds will need to get through.

There’s an outside chance that Texas Tech could get up to a No. 3 seed in the tournament, which would be ideal, which would greatly increase their chances.

Where to Bet: Texas Tech Advances to Final Four | +2500 at DraftKings Sportsbook