When the 2025-26 NBA season began, Dallas Mavericks forward Cooper Flagg was the overwhelming favorite to win the league’s Rookie of the Year award.
Flagg, who spent one year at Duke before being selected first overall in the 2025 NBA Draft, is listed as a -170 favorite on DraftKings. Every other rookie was at least 10-1.
That’s why it’s called gambling.
Fast forward to today, and there are at least two factors that could prevent Flagg from winning the award: 1) He missed eight games with a foot sprain before returning Thursday night against Orlando. and 2) Charlotte guard/forward Kon Knueppel.
Following these lines, we see that Knueppel, Flagg’s teammate and roommate at Duke, has surpassed Flagg and is now the top candidate to be named Rookie of the Year. On DraftKings, Knueppel is -180, Flagg is +145 and Philadelphia’s VJ Edgecombe is +12000. Knueppel, the fourth pick in last year’s draft, began the season at +1400.
Flagg has better individual statistics. Entering Friday’s matchup with Boston, he is averaging 20.3 points, 6.5 rebounds and 4.2 assists per contest while shooting 47.8 percent from the field. Still, some voters will no doubt take issue with the fact that he has missed 12 of the team’s 62 games.
“Obviously the hardest part is not playing,” Flagg said after Thursday’s game. “I love competing. I love playing basketball, so it was hard to leave that behind, but it’s a great opportunity to learn and gain perspective.”
Kneuppel has appeared in 62 of Charlotte’s 63 games, averaging 19.2 points, 5.5 rebounds and 3.4 assists per contest. He has made an NBA-high 216 3-point field goals and is shooting 43.6% from beyond the arc. His 216 3-pointers are also an NBA rookie record.
What could get Kneuppel to the finish line first is Charlotte’s surprising success this season. Despite a 4-14 start, the Hornets posted a 32-31 record and were looking to extend their six-game winning streak when they open Friday’s home game against Miami. Charlotte won 19 games last season and is looking to make the playoffs for the first time since 2015-16.
Dallas is 21-41 entering Friday’s game at Boston, and it appears unlikely the Mavericks will come close to the 39 wins they achieved last season. Despite his bias, Charlotte coach Charles Lee argued that Kneuppel deserved the award more than Flagg and said Kneuppel handled the competition well with one of his close friends.
“I think he’s done a great job. I don’t think it’s close. I think Kon has done a really good job of continuing to separate himself and impact wins and be consistent on both ends of the court. I think their friendly rivalry and the fact that they come from the same basketball program adds to that. But for the most part, Kon is such a humble competitor that he doesn’t get caught up in that. He’s probably mad at me for just saying that because he wants to focus on us teaming up and winning games and what he can do. It can affect you in some way.”
Of the last 25 players to win the NBA Rookie of the Year Award, 22 played on teams that won more games during their rookie season than the previous year.
Flagg still has time to beat Kneupel for the award, but a win is important. Charlotte’s improved win-loss record will make a difference, and Kneuppel being named Rookie of the Year would be a safer bet.
