Why is Bitcoin’s $72,000 Wall Still Marking Its Most Painful Phase?

Bitcoin (BTC) failed to break the $72,000 resistance on Tuesday as onchain data indicated that BTC had entered the “most difficult” phase of the cycle.

Key considerations:

• Bitcoin price is capped at $72,000 after another rejection.

• The increase in supply at a loss indicates that the most “psychological” phase of the bear market is here.

• Bitcoin needs to break the resistance at $72,000 to end the downtrend.

Bitcoin is facing the most depressing phase of the period

According to CryptoQuant analyst MorenoDV_, Bitcoin is entering a period of “greater uncertainty” where market participants are more hesitant than convinced.

“A set of 3 key onchain indicators suggests that the market may be navigating one of the most psychologically challenging phases of the cycle,” MorenoDV_ said.

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These include the Bitcoin Bull-Bear Cycle Indicator, a metric that tracks the stages of investor sentiment in the BTC market, indicating a bear market consolidation phase after an aggressive decline from a period high.

This is “a period that historically disappoints both bulls and bears,” the analyst said.

Visual requirements reinforce this view even more. The chart above shows that the surge in demand for Bitcoin in mid-February was short-lived and “demand is quickly returning to negative territory,” MorenoDV_ said.

The lack of sustained buying pressure suggests that market participants remain cautious and unwilling to rally aggressively at current levels.

Moreover, the Long SOPR Holder is now below the key threshold of 1, which is an indication that even long-term investors are facing losses.

“Historically, this phase occurs in the latter stages of bear markets, when prolonged uncertainty erodes even the most staunch belief.”

Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s supply has rebounded in losses and is currently nearing the 40-45% range, up from 22% in mid-January.

Historically, such levels have appeared during deep corrective phases, as seen in 2015, 2019 and 2022, reflecting increasing market pressure and sellers surrendering.

The chart below shows that bottoms in macro markets have historically formed when supply in losses exceeds 50%.

“Loss is increasing again, indicating increased market pressure,” said CryptoQuant analyst Wuminkyu.

“If historical patterns repeat themselves, current levels may represent the first phase of a bear market, not the final bottom.”

As Cointelegraph reported, analysts are predicting that Bitcoin will extend its bear market until the end of 2026, with some predicting that it will drop as low as $30,000.

Bitcoin’s main resistance remains at $72,000

Bitcoin has made several unsuccessful attempts to climb above $72,000, a level that has been holding back the price since early March.

Analyst Daan Crypto Trades commented on Bitcoin’s rejection of Tuesday’s break above $72,000 in an X post on Tuesday, adding:

“There are still very tight ranges and markets in general.”

The accompanying chart showed that $72,000 was a key level to watch on BTC’s four-hour chart. A breach of this level can attract new buyers if the price breaks out of that range.

Fellow analyst BenCrypz said a clean break below $72,000 “could create stronger upside momentum and open the way to higher levels.”

“However, if this resistance holds again, BTC could return to the $69k midpoint or even revisit the $66k support zone.”