Why France’s nuclear strategy shift is so significant

“To be free, one must be feared. To be feared, one must be powerful,” French President Emmanuel Macron said during a historic speech this week on nuclear deterrence.

France is one of only two nuclear powers in Europe and, unlike the United Kingdom, operates a nuclear weapons system entirely independent of the United States.

As the United States and Israel continued to attack Iran, and European leaders appeared divided and sidelined as they scrambled to react, Macron gave a speech Monday that was “the most significant update to French nuclear deterrence policy in 30 years,” Bruno Tertrais, deputy director of the Foundation for Strategic Research, said in a thread on X.

Speaking from a naval base in Brittany in front of a submarine, “Le Témérair,” Macron’s 45-minute speech laid out what he called a new “advanced deterrence” doctrine for France.

Macron said France would increase its number of nuclear warheads and promised more cooperation with European allies who have expressed interest.

He said several European countries (Germany, Poland, the Netherlands, Belgium, Greece, Sweden and Denmark) could participate in exercises of France’s air-launched nuclear capability and that France’s nuclear bombers could be stationed at their air bases. Macron also said France would stop revealing figures on its nuclear arsenal.

“The world is becoming more difficult and recent events have demonstrated this once again,” he said in the speech.

“We must strengthen our nuclear deterrent against the combination of threats, and we must consider our deterrence strategy within the depths of the European continent, with full respect for our sovereignty, through the progressive implementation of what I would call advanced deterrence.”

Yannick Pincé, associate professor of history at the Université Sorbonne Nouvelle, told CNBC that the speech needed to be seen in the context of next year’s presidential election, which a far-right National Rally candidate could win.

“I needed to give a politically acceptable speech, announce measures that would be difficult to reverse next year,” Pincé said.

“At the same time, he needed to be credible enough to our allies. He was walking a tightrope and, from my point of view, he pulled it off quite well.”

An independent nuclear deterrent has been the cornerstone of France’s defense strategy for more than 60 years.

But Macron said the doctrine has to evolve with the threats. In 2020, Macron hinted at a change when he said France’s “vital interests” – the definition of which remains deliberately vague – now had “a European dimension”.

On Monday, Macron said the years since 2020 “weigh like decades and the last few months like years.”

“Our competitors have evolved, as have our partners,” he said, adding that “the last few hours” of escalating conflict in the Middle East showed how the world has become “tougher.”

Macron mentioned the war in Ukraine and the threat from Russia, but also China and changing US defense priorities.

In line with the historic nuclear doctrine, Macron stated that the decision to use force “belongs solely to the President of the Republic”, rejecting explicit “guarantees” to partner countries.

Ankit Panda, Stanton senior fellow in the nuclear policy program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, called the speech “remarkable.”

The speech coincided with the moment of a “new nuclear era in Europe, without abandoning the key pillars of French nuclear strategy or culture,” Panda wrote in a blog.

Darya Dolzikova, senior researcher on proliferation and nuclear policy at the defense think tank RUSI, wrote in X that “some allies” would be “dissatisfied” with Macron’s refusal to commit to operational independence.

“Germany would almost certainly have been pushing for more to be achieved. But joint decision-making was never going to be on the table,” he wrote.

Macron said the adapted doctrine was “perfectly complementary to that of NATO, both strategically and technically.”

Pincé said Macron’s speech was aimed at extending the principles of the Northwood Declaration (an agreement between the United Kingdom and France signed last year that put cooperation between Europe’s two nuclear powers on a more formal basis) to non-nuclear allies.

“That is the right idea and really the only possible way,” Pincé added.

France and Germany issued a joint statement promising “concrete measures this year,” such as German participation in French nuclear exercises.

Macron’s speech was long planned, but was updated to mention “the ongoing war in the Near and Middle East,” which Macron said “carries and will continue to carry its seeds of instability and possible conflagration to our borders, with Iran possessing nuclear and ballistic capabilities that have not yet been destroyed.”

“Forward deterrence” has raised questions in France over financing, particularly as the country struggles to reduce its debt.

Pincé said Macron had addressed this by saying that the allies would take care of all non-nuclear aspects of the new system. Pincé called this a “way of burden-sharing” without giving French allies access to anything that could raise questions about their involvement in French decision-making on nuclear weapons.

Internal criticism of the speech has been limited. Marine Le Pen, former National Rally presidential candidate and potential next party candidate Jordan Bardella, said in a statement that “France must assume its role as a strategic power in Europe, engage in dialogue with its partners and contribute to the security of the continent.”

“You can only do so by retaining sole control over your ultimate decision-making,” they said.

The question is whether whoever wins next year’s elections will continue with the doctrine set forth by Macron.