As Selection Sunday beckons, it’s been more than a decade since there was such a small gap between the two best teams in college basketball.
Take a look at the metrics. Take a look at our gambling futures. Take a look at the evidence on your TV screen. It’s nearly impossible to tell whether the Duke Blue Devils or Michigan Wolverines are the favorites.
Using a predictive metric like KenPom, Duke ranks as roughly a half-point favorite over Michigan. Using outcome-based metrics like Wins Above Bubble, Michigan is slightly ahead of Duke. According to online sportsbooks like Caesars, Duke is listed at +325 to cut the net in Indianapolis on April 6, but Michigan is also listed at +325.
If you prefer absurd results like on-court results, Duke beat Michigan 68-63 on Feb. 21 in Washington, D.C., in a game in which neither team led by more than eight points.
Essentially, if this year’s tournament turns into nothing more than Duke and Michigan on an inexorable collision course on opposite sides of the bracket (scheduled to be revealed Sunday at 6 PM ET), we’re destined for an incredible three weeks.
The only way it could get bigger would be to replay the last NCAA Tournament where the top two teams were virtually indistinguishable. Because it was the last time an unlikely team won an NCAA title.
As for the statistic that Louisville entered the tournament as KenPom’s No. 1 overall team but received a No. 4 seed, it goes back to 2014, when NCAA tournament committee members were still troglodytes.
Once things settled down in Arlington, Texas, 18th-seeded and seventh-seeded Connecticut won the title, while eighth-seeded Kentucky also advanced to the Final Four. Some would argue that it’s a lot more fun than just having the No. 1 seed in the Final Four.
What else happens on Selection Sunday?
What else can we learn from the 2014 NCAA Tournament that can be applied to predicting what will happen on Selection Sunday? Well, that was the year Wichita State went 34-0 through the regular season and Missouri Valley Conference tournament and earned a No. 1 seed.
The Shockers now have a much tougher schedule than the 2025-26 Miami (Ohio) RedHawks. Tennessee, Alabama (on the road), BYU, Saint Louis and Tulsa were among the non-conference conquests, and the MVC was now tougher than the MAC.
But for all those who believe the NCAA Tournament Committee should not give in to an undefeated center fielder, Wichita State’s season ended in the second round as John Calipari’s Kentucky team rallied for a 78-76 win.
As for the Miami RedHawks, their perfect season ended with a 17-16 record against a Massachusetts team in the MAC quarterfinals on Thursday. After that lackluster finish following multiple two-point escapes, there will be howls no matter what the Committee does with the 31-1 RedHawks.
Do they deserve the worst seed, which is usually 12? Since Miami’s Millett Hall is just 25.4 miles from the University of Dayton Arena, does the committee force them to be in the top four as an 11 seed?
Or does the committee decide that Miami is not eligible to bid at all because it played such a poor schedule? According to NET rankings, the RedHawks haven’t played any Quad 1 games and are 2-0 against Quad 2 foes. Auburn, widely expected to fall short of the 68-team tournament field, went 4-13 against Quad 1 and 3-2 against Quad 2. Indiana, similarly positioned, is 3-10 against Quad 1 and 3-4 against Quad 2.
What is the prediction here? Miami (Ohio) receives the 10th seed and will face 7th seed Miami (Florida) in the first round.
Duke, Michigan, Arizona and Florida receive the No. 1 seeds. Iowa State, UConn, Houston and Michigan State get the No. 2 seeds. Santa Clara claims an at-large berth and none of the power conference bubble teams participate.
