which countries will be most affected

Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz is sending shockwaves through global energy markets, with Asia expected to face the biggest fallout.

A senior commander in Iran’s Revolutionary Guard said on Monday that the Strait of Hormuz had been closed and warned that any ship attempting to transit the waterway would be attacked, Iranian media reported.

Located between Oman and Iran, the Strait serves as a vital artery for the global oil trade. About 13 million barrels per day will pass through it in 2025, representing about 31% of all maritime crude flows, according to energy consultancy Kpler.

A prolonged closure of the Strait would likely cause oil prices to rise again, with some analysts predicting oil will surpass $100 a barrel. World landmark Brent It last rose 2.6%, to around $80 a barrel, up almost 10% since the conflict broke out.

According to Kpler, around 20% of global liquefied natural gas exports coming from the Gulf are also at risk, primarily those originating in Qatar and shipped through the Strait of Hormuz. Qatar, one of the world’s largest LNG suppliers, halted production on Monday after Iranian drones attacked its facilities in the industrial city of Ras Laffan and the industrial city of Mesaieed.

“In Asia, Thailand, India, Korea and the Philippines are the most vulnerable to rising oil prices due to their high dependence on imports, while Malaysia would be a relative beneficiary as it is an energy exporter,” Nomura wrote in a note on Monday.

This is how those who rely on Gulf energy and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz will be affected.

South Asia: immediate physical tension

South Asia would face the most serious disruptions, particularly when it comes to LNG supplies, analysts said.

Qatar and the United Arab Emirates account for 99% of Pakistan’s LNG imports, 72% of Bangladesh’s and 53% of India’s, according to Kpler data.

With limited storage and procurement flexibility, Pakistan and Bangladesh are especially vulnerable. On the one hand, Bangladesh already has a significant structural gas deficit. According to the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis, the country has a deficit of more than 1.3 billion cubic feet per day.

“Pakistan and Bangladesh have limited storage and procurement flexibility, meaning disruption would likely trigger rapid energy sector demand destruction rather than aggressive spot bidding,” Katayama said.

India faces the largest combined exposure in the region. “More than half of its LNG imports are tied to the Gulf, and a significant portion is indexed to Brent, so a Hormuz-driven crude surge would simultaneously raise oil import costs and LNG contract prices. That creates a physical and financial double shock,” he said.

Similarly, around 60% of India’s oil imports come from the Middle East, according to the UBP. Therefore, a sustained blockade would amplify both energy import costs and current account pressures.

China: great exposure but enough protection

A Hormuz shutdown would test China’s energy security, but reserves and alternative supply offer some protection.

The country is the world’s largest importer of crude oil and buys more than 80% of Iranian oil, according to Kpler.

About 30% of its LNG imports come from Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, and about 40% of its oil imports pass through Hormuz, UBP estimates.

“China is materially exposed but more flexible,” said Kpler’s Katayama.

According to Kpler, China’s LNG stocks at the end of February stood at 7.6 million tonnes, providing a short-term hedge. However, China would have to compete for Atlantic cargoes if the disruption persists, which would narrow the Pacific basin, Katayama added. In which case, the dynamic could intensify price competition across Asia even if Beijing avoids an outright shortage.

Saudi Arabia has increased crude oil shipments in recent weeks, and strategic oil reserves held by major consuming nations such as China could provide some temporary protection to the market, Rystad Energy said in a note on Sunday.

UBP said that while China is a key net importer of energy in the region, it is not necessarily the most vulnerable to potential supply shocks.

According to the UBP, the Middle East supplies 75% of Japan’s oil imports and around 70% of Korea’s.

In the case of LNG, its exposure to the Gulf is less than that of South Asia. South Korea gets 14% of its LNG from Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, while Japan gets 6%, Kpler estimates.

Even without outright shortages, the effects on prices could be severe. “Economies with a high dependence on energy imports, such as Japan, South Korea and Taiwan, are more exposed to supply shocks,” said Shier Lee Lim, APAC chief macro and currency strategist at payments platform Convera.

Inventories are also limited. Korea has about 3.5 million tons of LNG and Japan about 4.4 million tons in reserves, enough for about two to four weeks of stable demand, according to Kpler.

South Korea’s net oil imports account for 2.7% of GDP, and Nomura notes it among the most vulnerable on the current account front.

In much of Southeast Asia, the first-order impact is cost inflation rather than immediate shortages, industry experts said.

LNG buyers who rely on spot would face much higher replacement costs as Asia competes with Europe for Atlantic cargoes, Kpler’s Katayama said.

Thailand is especially a notable oil price loser in Nomura’s framework because the external hit is large and immediate: it has the largest net oil imports in Asia, at 4.7% of GDP, and every 10% increase in the oil price worsens the current account by about 0.5 percentage points of the country’s GDP.