Back in 1961, astronomer Frank Drake put chalk on the blackboard and developed a formula to estimate the number of communicative civilizations in the Milky Way. How many alien societies exist and is it possible to discover?
And it is also the paradoxical question posed a decade earlier by the physicist Enrico Fermi. It seems like ET should be out there, given the vast amount of cosmic real estate. So, where is everyone?
The article continues below
Refuse to talk?
In a new research article, Erik Geslin notes that Drake equation ask how many civilizations beyond Earth may exist.
“My work is asking if they actually want to talk to us,” Geslin told Space.com. “What We Call”Great silence‘ may reflect not absence but refusal.”
According to Geslin, associate professor of interactive media at Noroff University College in Norway, a civilization is capable of interstellar travel can also be one that has moved beyond conquest, profit and ecological self-destruction.
Does that mean that ET can also be introverted and feel no real urge to reach out to their cosmic neighbors?
“Advanced extraterrestrials may not be shy, they may simply be cautious,” Geslin said. “If extraterrestrial civilizations are biocentric or ecocentric, humanity cannot yet appear to them as a safe contact partner. Such civilizations can simply be cautious.”
Planetary wisdom
Other Star People may well understand the potential risks associated with interacting with humanity, a species that remains heavily anthropocentric, heavily resource-driven and often conflict-prone, according to Geslin.
“Therefore, what we interpret as silence may not reflect fear, but caution! Perhaps even a kind of ethical restraint. In that sense, their behavior may resemble a principle of non-interference,” he said.
But as far as us earthlings are concerned, we have been busy beavers, regarding broadcast signals into space and put an ear to the cosmos in the hope of making contact. We even have planted messages to “the others” out there on outgoing spacecraft, such as NASA’s Pioneer and Voyager probes.
“But sending friendly messages does not necessarily mean that we appear as a friendly civilization from the outside. An advanced society would probably take the time to observe us before they consider any kind of interaction,” Geslin said. “They can study our communications, our media, our movies, simulations, games and social networks, all of which reveal something about who we are.”
Way of thinking
Geslin said it doesn’t take much effort to simply observe the state of our planet and the way our civilization interacts with the biosphere.
“From that perspective,” he said, “our signals may reveal a species that is inventive and technologically creative, but also ecologically unstable and often destructive to both the environment and its own members.”
This line of thinking led Geslin to introduce a “willingness to contact” factor into the Drake framework.
“My work explores another question: Even if they exist, would they actually want to communicate with us?” he said. “My hypothesis is that the answer may depend not only on technological capacity, but also on the cognitive, ethical and ecological maturity of these civilizations, and on our own.”
Curiosity: a powerful force
That said, curiosity is a powerful force. Technological evolution is closely linked to creativity, exploration and the desire to understand the unknown.
“It is therefore possible that some civilizations may eventually decide that the potential benefits of contact outweigh it the risks. Exploration always involves a degree of uncertainty,” Geslin explained.
“Personally, however, I suspect that civilizations capable of sustaining themselves long enough to achieve interstellar travel may also have developed a very deep awareness of ecological balance and systemic fragility,” he added. “If so, they can be extremely selective about who they choose to engage with.”
Geslin’s paper, “Incorporating an Exopsychological Biocentric Contact Willingness Factor into the Drake Equation,” will appear in the August issue of the journal Acta Astronautica. You can find it online here.
