When and how might Gulf states retaliate against Iranian attacks?

Iran’s strikes are pushing Gulf states to breaking point, forcing a choice between restraint and retaliation.

Iran’s Gulf neighbors have been repeatedly targeted and hit by Iranian drones and missiles as part of the Islamic Republic’s retaliatory attacks against US and Israeli bombing since late February.

The latest and perhaps most significant escalation in attacks on Iran’s neighbors came this week when Tehran launched a retaliatory missile attack on Qatar’s Ras Laffan liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminal following Israel’s attack on Iran’s South Pars gas field.

Gulf states – from Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates to Bahrain, Oman and Kuwait – have responded to Iran’s repeated attacks by saying they “must pay a price” and that the attacks are “unanswerable”, but, so far, they have not retaliated.

That diplomatic and defensive posture cannot and will not last forever, analysts say, with Gulf nations now weighing when, where and how they can shift from a neutral stance to an aggressive one.

Patience among Gulf nations is clearly wearing thin, with Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud warning early Thursday that tolerance for Iranian attacks on his country and neighboring Gulf states is limited.

“I think it’s important for Iranians to understand the kingdom, but its partners, both under attack and beyond, have significant capabilities and capabilities that they can bring to bear if they choose to do so,” he said.

“The patience being displayed is not infinite. Do they (the Iranians) have a day, two, a week? I’m not going to telegraph that,” he said. CNBC has requested further comment from the Ministry of External Affairs.

Analysts told CNBC that Gulf leaders face a tough dilemma as Iran continues to target its critical infrastructure across the region.

“Despite extensive diplomatic efforts to remain neutral over the past two years, the Gulf states find themselves in the middle of Iran’s firing line,” Torbjörn Soltvedt, principal Middle East analyst at risk intelligence company Verisk Maplecroft, told CNBC on Wednesday.

“Active measures to remain neutral – limiting US access to bases in the region – have done little to protect the Gulf states from Iranian attacks. But any decision to take military action against Iran could lead to even worse Iranian retaliation,” he noted.

The decision facing Gulf leaders is between two major choices, both of which carry significant risks: “redouble diplomacy and defensive measures, or turn to an aggressive stance aimed at reducing Iran’s ability to launch attacks,” he said.

While the rhetoric against Iran is increasingly justified, agreeing on a coordinated response will be difficult, with some states affected more than others.

The UAE says it has targeted more than 2,000 Iranian drones and missiles since the war began in late February, but Oman, which has traditionally had friendly relations with Iran, has been targeted much less. Israel, on the other hand, has been targeted by Iran, but its multi-layered air defenses have largely protected it.

While Iran’s targeting of its neighbors may seem illogical and self-defeating at first glance, experts say the Islamic Republic’s efforts to inflict maximum damage in a wider region are designed to pressure Gulf states to pressure Trump to quickly end the war.

Trump has tried to get the Gulf states to enter the war to increase US and Israeli operations, but they have mostly tried to maintain a neutral stance.

Iran appears to be walking a fine line between provoking its neighbors, but stopping short of full escalation. Iran’s president apologized to neighbors for the strikes in March, before they resumed in earnest, and Tehran warned Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE to evacuate their energy facilities ahead of the Ras Laffan strike.

Nevertheless, new Iranian threats to target several energy facilities in neighboring countries following Israeli strikes against southern Pars underscore that they could face more damaging attacks.

Gulf states will have to consider how severely Iran is capable of retaliating and the Islamic Republic’s long-term survival.

According to Hassan Alhassan, senior fellow for Middle East policy at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, a purely defensive posture is not sustainable in the context of an extended conflict.

This is especially true, he said, as air and missile defense breaches, limited interceptor inventories and the “excessive cost of defense relative to crime” begin to weigh heavily on Gulf nations.

“If they fail to respond to Iranian aggression, moreover, they risk losing their ability to establish deterrence, emboldening future Iranian attacks. After all, further cycles of conflict are likely if the Iranian regime survives this war,” Alhassan noted in an IISS analysis this week.

Gulf states have “multiple options” for them, including allowing the US full operational access to their airspaces and bases to carry out offensive operations against Iran. They also have a range of precision-strike capabilities that can take out Iran’s missile or drone launchers as a defensive response to Iranian missile and UAV attacks against them.

Such maneuvers could prove operationally difficult, however, “and would require active intelligence gathering to detect and neutralize launchers, many of which are mobile or camouflaged, and coordination with the US and Israel, already active in Iranian airspace.”

Another option is for the Gulf states to focus on mitigating the economic pain caused by the conflict, and since the Gulf states have a major economic interest in resuming oil and gas shipments, they may choose to deploy with the US to secure shipping through the largely blocked Strait of Hormuz.

Analysts are wary that any retaliation could have unintended and potentially catastrophic results, with Iran’s response likely to extend to strikes on critical civilian infrastructure.

“Iran maintains a substantial stockpile of UAVs, which it can continue to deploy against the Gulf states and which have proven costly and difficult to intercept. Iran could escalate by emboldening the Houthis, who have so far stayed out of the war. The Straits,” Alhassan said.

“Iran could increase its attacks against key civilian infrastructure, such as power plants or water-desalination plants. In doing so, it risks achieving catastrophic success, causing damage large enough to push the Gulf states into a no-holds-barred offensive,” he warned.