The president of Cuba, Miguel Díaz-Canel (center), participates in the “anti-imperialist” protest in front of the United States embassy against the US incursion in Venezuela, where 32 Cuban soldiers lost their lives, in Havana on January 16, 2026.
Yamil Lage | afp | fake images
“Cuba is next,” said Senator Lindsey Graham, a Republican and ally of US President Donald Trump, after the US and Israel began their attacks on Iran.
The United States has imposed an oil blockade on the communist-ruled island nation since January, shortly after its ally and key oil supplier, Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, was captured in an extraordinary US military operation. It has led to a worsening economic crisis and left Cuba facing its greatest test since the collapse of the Soviet Union.
Now Iran, with which Cuba has a strategic partnership, is under sustained attack. “This communist dictatorship in Cuba has its days numbered,” Graham told Fox News’ “Sunday Night in America.”
Before the Iran attacks, Trump said he wanted a “friendly takeover” of the island, without giving details. The comments, along with US attacks on Iran and Venezuela, have done little to allay growing fears in Havana, experts told CNBC.
Cuba’s message has been constant since 1959: survival will only be achieved through adaptation to the changing geopolitical context.
Par Kumaraswami
professor at the University of Nottingham
A “friendly takeover” could resemble post-Maduro Venezuela, “where there is still an authoritarian regime in power but moving in the direction and at the speed that the United States determines,” said Carlos Solar, senior researcher for Latin American Security at RUSI, a London-based defense think tank.
Solar told CNBC via email that Cuba had lost the support of Venezuela and Iran “at a time of maximum pressure” from the Trump administration.
But he added: “What is not clear is how the United States will cause the Cuban regime to break, forcing Havana to capitulate.”
“We are not seeing the kind of military buildup prelude to Operation Absolute Resolve that ultimately led to Maduro’s capture in January. It could well be that the United States approaches Cuba in a totally different way,” Solar said.
A Turkish Airlines plane takes off from Havana’s José Martí International Airport on February 9, 2026.
Yamil Lage | afp | fake images
A spokesperson for the White House and the Cuban embassy in London did not respond to a request for comment from CNBC.
Cuba’s Foreign Ministry called for an end to the Middle East conflict and said it “condemns in the strongest terms” the joint US-Israeli attack on Iran on February 28.
‘Cubans are increasingly worried’
Russia recently warned that the situation in Cuba appeared to be worsening after Cuban forces killed four people off its coast on a US-registered speedboat.
The blockade has effectively isolated Cuba from Venezuelan oil since it launched a military operation to capture Maduro on January 3. Cuba said 32 of its citizens were killed in the attack.
Trump has also said that Cuba’s government represents “an unusual and extraordinary threat” and pledged to impose tariffs on any country that supplies it with oil. However, the US Treasury said late last month that it would allow the resale of Venezuelan oil to the Cuban private sector.
The move appeared to reflect a small step toward easing the island’s acute fuel shortage, which has forced a wave of airlines to cut flights to the country. Tourism has long been a major source of income for the cash-strapped Cuban government.
A pedicab passes by the garbage piled up on a street in Havana on February 17, 2026.
Yamil Lage | afp | fake images
Par Kumaraswami, a professor of Latin American Studies at the University of Nottingham in the United Kingdom, told CNBC that the Trump administration’s attacks on Iran and recent comments about the Cuban regime had increased the atmosphere of uncertainty and anxiety in Havana.
“Cubans are increasingly worried about how they will survive amid such global chaos, and the recent violence against Iran will have done nothing to allay their fears,” Kumaraswami said by email.
“At the same time, there are signs that the US administration is negotiating with the Cuban government about changes to Cuba’s economy, and this is indeed reflected in Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel’s current focus on economic improvement as a priority,” he added.
Kumaraswami stated that “Cuba’s message” has been “constant” since the communists came to power in 1959: “Survival will only be achieved through adaptation to the changing geopolitical context.”
‘Cuba just bought a window’
Cuba has adopted measures to protect essential services and ration fuel supplies to key sectors. The United Nations has previously warned of a possible humanitarian “collapse” as the country’s oil supplies dwindle.
“Cuba just bought itself a window, but it’s narrow,” Robert Munks, Americas director at risk intelligence firm Verisk Maplecroft, told CNBC by email.
“The operation against Iran removes Cuba – temporarily – from Washington’s sights, as the US administration will be preoccupied by the Gulf campaign in the coming weeks.”
But Munks said he expected Cuba to return to the headlines, adding that the Cuban diaspora in South Florida would apply pressure and Washington has shown that it is prioritizing the Western Hemisphere in its reshaped national security strategy.
“The regime in Havana remains in control, for the moment. Any unrest caused by economic difficulties could be sudden and spontaneous, giving Washington a pretext to refocus on putting pressure on the regime,” Munks said.
