What is the possible scenario for BTC after the $70k return

Bitcoin has bounced back after a washout in February and is trying to re-establish a short-term trend. The asset is now pushing into a heavy resistance band where the recent breakout began, so this move looks more like a recovery leg within a broader corrective structure than a clean trend reversal.

The key question is whether buyers can translate this squeeze into sustained demand or where trapped holders are waiting to sell.

Bitcoin Price Analysis: Daily Chart

On the daily chart, BTC moved from the main demand zone around $60,000 to the resistance zone around $72,000 to $75,000. It is in line with the lower part of the previous distribution range and is just below the 100-day descending moving average, which is still covering the medium-term downtrend.

The price also returned to the upper band of the falling channel that guided the downtrend from the end of last year, so in this area analysts usually ask if this move is just a light rally or the beginning of a bigger base. A daily close above this resistance cluster and a clean breakout of the channel will be the first real signal that sellers are losing control and a new bull market is in the making.

4-hour BTC/USDT chart

On the 4-hour chart, the decline from early February has turned into a broad consolidation within a symmetrical triangle that has been broken to the upside over the past few days. The price broke out of the contract and went straight to the green zone above, where it is now moving to the side of around $73,000 to $75,000.

The 4-hour RSI is in a strong zone and has reached an overbought zone after a sharp vertical leg, which often leads to a pause or short-term reversal before any further pressure.

However, as long as Bitcoin is held above the broken triangle and the high imbalance is around $70,000, the path of least resistance remains towards a retest of the upper resistance, but a failure inside the old range warns that the break was mainly compressed and more downside is likely.

Sentiment analysis

Bitcoin funding rates on futures exchanges have turned very negative during the recent post-crash consolidation, and have largely remained below zero or near zero even as the price has rallied. This suggests that many traders are paying the lows to hold short positions and are now forced to let the market move against them, which is consistent with the idea of ​​compressed returns rather than pure demand.

The fact that funding is only slowly returning to neutral suggests that there is still caution and even bearishness remaining in the derivatives market.

If this rally continues while funding remains modest, this means that the move is supported by real buying and the opening of crowded shorts, but if funding near the resistance level quickly increases positively, this indicates that longs are being chased and the risk of another shock increases.