What happens if Trump pushes to seize Kharg Island?

The prospect of a US move to seize Kharg Island, a strategically vital hub often referred to as Iran’s “oil lifeline”, is considered extremely high risk, both from a geopolitical and economic perspective.

The five-mile-long coral island, which lies about 15 miles off the coast of mainland Iran in the northern waters of the Persian Gulf, has remained untouched during nearly two weeks of US- and Israeli-led attacks on Iran.

The Trump administration has discussed the possibility of seizing the island, according to a March 7 Axios report, which cites four anonymous sources with knowledge of the discussions. CNBC has contacted the White House and is awaiting a response.

Kharg Island has become the center of global attention because it is considered one of Iran’s most sensitive economic targets. The terminal accounts for around 90% of the country’s crude oil exports and has a loading capacity of approximately 7 million barrels per day.

Analysts say any attempt to attack or seize it would require a ground troop operation, which the United States appears reluctant to undertake. An attack would also likely cause a sustained rise in already rising oil prices.

U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth previously refused to rule out deploying U.S. ground forces to Iran, but said the United States will not be bogged down in the country.

Francis Galgano, an associate professor and specialist in military geography and environmental security at Villanova University in Pennsylvania, said Kharg Island’s location is important because it is in deep waters that allow supertankers to approach.

“I will put on my war hat… if the goal is to win the war (quickly), Kharg must be destroyed or captured immediately,” Galgano told CNBC by email, adding that any such attempt would create maximum leverage over Tehran.

However, taking the small island would not be an easy task, Galgano said. “It would involve moving a considerable number of ground combat troops into the region… I estimate about 5,000 to take and hold the island.”

He added: “All of this, of course, affects global oil markets, but they are already being affected.”

Oil prices have been extremely volatile since the United States and Israel launched airstrikes against Iran on February 28. Iran has retaliated by attacking ships attempting to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, and several incidents have been reported in recent days.

The narrow waterway is a key maritime corridor connecting the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman. Approximately 20% of the world’s oil and gas usually pass through it.

International benchmark Brent crude futures for May delivery traded down 1% at $99.45 a barrel on Friday, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures for April delivery last fell 2% to $93.81.

If Kharg Island were to be disabled, analysts at JPMorgan He said the loss of Iran’s storage reserve and a shortage of viable export alternatives would “quickly lead to upstream closures in major fields in the southwest.”

“With production close to 3.3 mbd and exports around 1.5 mbd, up to half of national production could be at risk if the center remains offline, and the previously assumed 20-day buffer would disappear from day one,” they said in a note published on Sunday.

Richard Goldberg, a senior adviser at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, a nonprofit research institute considered hardline on Iran, said he understood the hesitation to do anything that could end Iranian oil production at a time when markets are nervous and the potential for regime change is still in play.

“That may change quickly as we retake security control of the Strait of Hormuz and have a clearer picture of whether the regime is capable of staying in power for a while longer,” Goldberg told CNBC by email.

“At that point it is absolutely necessary that we consider deactivating the export terminal or otherwise cutting off the regime’s financial lifeline indefinitely,” he added.

US President Donald Trump suggested on Friday that an end to the war with Iran was not imminent and reportedly said the US “has ammunition and plenty of time” to keep fighting.

His comments come shortly after Iran’s new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, also struck a defiant tone, insisting that the Strait of Hormuz must remain closed as a “tool to pressure the enemy.”

Iran’s enormous scale and mountainous topography mean that for the United States to mobilize any conventional ground forces in the region would require hundreds of thousands of troops, according to Alex Plitsas, a nonresident fellow at the Atlantic Council think tank.

“Any use of ground forces would likely be limited to special operations forces for specific missions,” Plitsas said Wednesday in a note, without specifically referring to Iran’s Kharg Island.

—CNBC’s Michael Bloom contributed to this report.