What does this mean for BTC?

Bitcoin (BTC) initially fell before paring all losses, leaving market participants wondering what higher oil prices would mean for BTC prices going forward.

Key considerations:

• Escalation in the Middle East conflict pushes oil to $79 and puts bitcoin at risk of $60,000 on inflationary shocks and a delayed Fed rate cut.

• BTC is bearish against rising oil prices in the short term, but is dominant in the medium to long term.

Bitcoin faces short-term risks as oil prices rise

Oil hit a 15-month high of $79.84 in early Asian trading on Monday on news of an Iranian drone attack on Saudi Aramco’s Ras Tanura oil refinery, data from TradingView showed.

Both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite Index were down about 1% at the time of writing.

Polymarket bettors estimate a 56% chance of March crude trading above $90 per barrel and a 44% chance of crossing $100.

56% chance of crude oil reaching $90 in March. https://t.co/tSrdJI2gOt

— Polymarket (@Polymarket) March 1, 2026

Reacting, commentators are predicting short-term vulnerability for Bitcoin if oil hits $100 and inflation delays the decline, prompting a sell-off near $60,000.

“Crude will go up, gold will go up. Bitcoin and crypto will go lower,” crypto entrepreneur Anthony Pompliano wrote in part of the initial reaction on X.

Pompliano described the “critical variables” of the conflict in the Middle East, including the status of the Strait of Hormuz, while predicting how the markets will ultimately react.

related to: ‘This Is Not World War III:’ Five Things to Know in Bitcoin This Week

If Iran tries to close the Strait of Hormuz, “every commodity in the world will go up dramatically” while bitcoin will plummet, he said, adding:

“That’s the single most important variable.”

“If Iran moves to close the Strait of Hormuz, oil could fall from $100 to $108. This is not just an oil story, but an inflationary blow,” crypto analyst BBX said in a recent post on X, adding:

“Higher oil → higher inflation expectations → “higher rates for longer”.

However, Arthur Hayes, former CEO of crypto exchange BitMEX, stated that based on historical patterns, US intervention in the Middle East would eventually lead to the Fed lowering rates or printing money to finance the war effort, which he believed would drive up the price of Bitcoin.

In his latest essay, he said: “The longer Trump engages in outrageously expensive Iranian national-building activities, the more likely the Fed will lower rates and increase the amount of money to support the latest Pax Americana adventurism in the Middle East.”

High for BTC? The rise in oil prices may be short-lived

Bitcoin and oil prices have shown an inverse relationship in the past, with the latter rising sharply after conflicts arose due to rising energy costs to mine BTC and broader market uncertainty.

However, oil price rises are usually short-lived and Bitcoin has the upper hand in the long run.

For example, during the Ukraine crisis in 2022, crude oil rose by 50% and the price of Bitcoin fell by 18%. BTC continued to recover, but surged 40% over the next two weeks.

A similar scenario occurred after Hamas attacked Israel in October 2023 and Israel attacked Iran in 2025, as shown in the chart below.

The current situation may be an example of an early stage.

Oil rose 15% to $79 from $69 on Thursday as traders reacted to rising tensions in the Middle East and a potential threat to key transit routes such as the Strait of Hormuz.

From a technical perspective, oil is looking to break out of its multi-year downtrend, which was preceded by a 100%-200% rally in Bitcoin, analyst Max Krypto said.