Democrats in Texas are feeling fired up about their voters’ enthusiasm — and for good reason.
For the first time in a generation, he has outpaced Republicans in midterm primary voting in the state. It’s a remarkable achievement for James Talarico and a party that, in 2026, believes it has finally found its nominee and found the moment to deliver a landslide victory in a traditionally Republican stronghold.
But while Democrats are emerging from Tuesday’s primary with understandable optimism about Talarico’s chances of capturing the Senate seat, the results come with some cautionary notes.
Start with the numbers. With final votes still being tallied, more than 2.2 million votes have been cast in the Democratic Senate primary, which includes state lawmakers Talarico and Rep. There is Jasmine Crockett. That’s twice the figure seen in midterm primaries for Texas Democrats this century. That’s more than 100,000 votes above the current turnout level for the GOP race.
Democrats’ turnout in the race was doubly impressive, coming even as Republicans locked in their own unusually competitive primary, Sen. John Cornyn Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton and Rep. Facing challenges from Wesley Hunt. In a red state like Texas, one would imagine that a high-stakes GOP contest would easily draw more interest from voters, especially with the astronomical amount of money being poured into it.
While Democrats have made noise about flipping Texas in previous cycles, Republicans have been able to counter that they still enjoyed a clear voting advantage in the primaries. For example, during the 2018 midterms during President Donald Trump’s first term, Democrats predicted that then-Rep. Beto O’Rourke Sen. Deposed Ted Cruz. But turnout in that year’s GOP primary outscored the Democratic contest by more than 500,000 votes. (Cruz and O’Rourke both won their primaries comfortably.)
“We’ve been hearing for weeks here in Texas and across the country that a big ‘blue wave’ is coming to Texas,” Republican Lt. Gov. Don Patrick said at the time. “But we know the votes were counted and the so-called ‘blue wave’ never made a landslide.”
But this time, Republicans can’t make that kind of claim. For the first time in a long time, Democrats have matched their campaign with real numbers in the polls. Clearly, Democratic-aligned voters are deeply — even historically — powerful right now.
What’s not clear, though, is what this means for November.
Obviously, primary voting does not always correlate with general election victory. For example, in the 2008 presidential primary season, nearly 3 million voters participated in the hotly contested Democratic race in Texas between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton, compared to just 1 million in the GOP battle between John McCain and Mike Huckabee. But in November, Texas remained safely in the GOP field, with McCain beating Obama by 12 points in the state.
The Democratic turnout in this year’s Texas Senate primary is part of a much broader national trend that has accelerated since Trump’s return to the White House. Turnout has skyrocketed, especially among economically-advanced, college-educated voters who have become a large part of the party’s base. These are voters turned off by Trump and intent on using any and every opportunity to register their views at the polls.
This was evident in every special house election last year. In all of these, Democratic candidates posted double-digit net-improvements compared to the party’s 2024 presidential election performance. And it was evident in the off-year state supreme court race in the battleground state of Wisconsin, where a massively lopsided Democratic turnout led the liberal candidate to a landslide victory.
With Trump in office, this is the state of the Democratic base. Among the GOP rank and file, there is no comparative urgency right now.
In primaries and special elections, this kind of power imbalance can really show. But November brings a much broader electorate, and in Texas, a Senate general election could attract 10 million voters. His show of strength on Tuesday was so impressive that it would need Democrats to win about 3 million additional voters in a state that gave Trump a 14-point victory in 2024. As the Democratic candidate, Talarico needs to persuade voters, not just inspire them.
Tuesday’s results may have already posed a significant challenge to him on this front. Democrats are hoping the GOP will choose the scandal-plagued Paxton as its Senate nominee. That could still happen, with Paxton and Cornyn heading into a May 26 runoff, but Cornyn recovered more than expected on Tuesday. It looks like he’ll finish with more votes than Paxton, which could help convince Trump to come off the sidelines and back him in a runoff.
Talarico could prove a tough sell along with the political brand. His admirers view him as a unifier who merges Christian theology with progressive values. But the ideological turf they’ve staked is undeniably to the left, especially on some controversial cultural issues. The general election audience in Texas is likely to perceive experimental moderation differently from what Democratic voters consider it.
Tuesday’s primary leaves no doubt that Democrats have the will to win Texas. They have to see if there is a way.
