What China’s response to the US attack on Iran says about its foreign policy

Beijing — On the day the US and Israel attacked Iran, China waited several hours before taking its first official position. It said it was “deeply concerned” and called for an immediate halt to military operations and a resumption of dialogue.

The next day, Foreign Minister Wang Yi condemned the strikes as unacceptable and again called for more talks.

There are no indications of direct intervention – but such an expectation would not be realistic. In other recent conflicts, including last year’s attack on Iran, China has condemned the use of force while remaining mindful of its long-term interests.

This time, those interests include US President Donald Trump’s highly anticipated visit to Beijing, which is expected to take place in early April.

China’s military is growing rapidly. It has held military drills with Iran and established a base in Djibouti in East Africa in 2017. But its overwhelming focus is protecting its interests in Asia, from Taiwan to the South China Sea.

It waded into Middle East diplomacy, helping to broker a rapprochement between Iran and Saudi Arabia in 2023. But it sees the US wars in Afghanistan and Iraq as cautionary tales to avoid, said William Yang, an analyst at the International Crisis Group.

“China is reluctant to project military power beyond its immediate periphery and is unwilling to play the role of security guarantor in volatile regions such as the Middle East,” he said.

Likewise, it has offered diplomatic and economic support to Russia and Venezuela, but has shied away from any military action in Ukraine or Latin America.

China’s position on the sidelines shows the limits of its influence in global geopolitics, said Craig Singleton, senior China fellow at the Washington-based think tank Foundation for Defense of Democracies.

“Beijing’s response has been predictably restrained, underscoring China’s limited ability to shape events when hard power is on the move,” he said. “Beijing signals discomfort; however, it cannot meaningfully deter or influence US-Israeli military action.”

Analysts say China’s unhappiness over attacks against Iran is unlikely to boost ties with the US, or that Trump plans to meet with Chinese leader Xi Jinping in Beijing in about a month.

For Chinese leaders, the relationship with the US is more critical than Iran on many fronts, from trade and the economy to Taiwan.

Beijing may have a war of words with Washington over Iran, but the downside of creating a new conflict with Trump outweighs the upside, said George Chen, partner at The Asia Group.

“US-China relations are already too complicated for President Trump and Xi to handle,” he said. Adding Iran to the mix “is something neither side is keen to do.”

However, Beijing is likely to postpone Trump’s visit, he said.

China is the top importer of oil from Iran, but the government is deeply concerned about energy security and has developed alternatives. Rising prices and the loss of access to oil and natural gas from the wider Middle East are of utmost concern.

China imported about 1.4 million barrels per day — or 13% of China’s total seaborne oil imports — from Iran last year, according to Kpler, a data and analytics company. But the agency estimates that enough oil is already in transit to last another four to five months. That gives China’s independent refiners time to adjust and find alternatives, with discounted Russian oil their primary choice, said Muyu Xu, senior analyst at Kpler.

China has spent years diversifying its supply and building its reserves, Singleton said. “The loss of Iranian oil is at least short-term, not material,” he said.

Iran’s efforts to close the Strait of Hormuz – the narrow mouth to the Persian Gulf – are of as much concern as any attacks on liquefied natural gas facilities in the Gulf states.

Qatar Energy, a major supplier, halted production of liquefied natural gas on Monday after attacks on its facilities.

Analysts say China is unlikely to send weapons to Iran to help fight the US for several reasons.

“Obvious military assistance, if any, will be limited to existing long-term defense trade arrangements rather than rapid battlefield support, and will be constrained by Beijing’s interest in avoiding direct confrontation with the US and its allies,” said Muhammad Zulfikar Rakhmat, a researcher at Indonesia’s Center for Economic and Legal Studies.

China has criticized the US for supplying arms to Ukraine, saying it would prolong the fighting.

Iran’s missile program is based on Chinese technology, said James M., an assistant senior fellow at Nanyang Technological University in Singapore. But he predicted that China would err on the side of caution rather than sell any missiles to the country’s military.

“China wants this to end,” he said.

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Associated Press writers Conice Leung in Hong Kong, Didi Tang in Washington, E. Contributed by Eduardo Castillo and Simina Mistrenu in Taipei, Taiwan.