Weekly buying of bitcoin gives the best returns in bull and bear markets

Smart investors adjust their strategy in bear markets and 50% declines like the strategy in Bitcoin (BTC) in the last 5 months. The strategy, known as dollar cost averaging (DCA), involves investing the same amount at regular intervals, regardless of market conditions.

Historical data of market cycles and simulations of predicted BTC prices provide a clearer picture of how these robust investment models will evolve over different entry periods and time horizons.

The 5-year Bitcoin DCA stack shows a strong net gain

A weekly purchase of $250 worth of bitcoin starting in January 2021 has invested $67,500 over five years. Based on DCA simulation data, the strategy collected 1,65097905 BTC at an average purchase price of $40,884.

With the current Bitcoin price close to $71,000, that 1.65097905 BTC is worth about $120,518, representing a return of $53,018 (76%) on invested capital. When Bitcoin was trading at $100,000, the holdings were worth about $165,098, while at the peak of $126,000 in October 2025, the same amount reached $208,023.

A shorter accumulation window shows how the timing of entry changes early performance while the strategy continues to generate impact. A weekly DCA of $250 from January 2024 investing $28,500 will accumulate 0.36863166 BTC at an average purchase price of $77,312.

At the current price of $71,000, it is worth about $26,909, an unrealized loss of -6%. At $100,000, holdings rose to $36,863, while an all-time high of $126,000 cost Bitcoin as high as $46,448.

In February X, Swan Bitcoin analyst Adam Livingstone compared DCA’s similar behavior to stocks over the past five years. Weekly distributions of $100 were $42,508 in Bitcoin and $37,470 in the S&P 500 (SPX), representing returns of 62.9% and 43.6%, respectively.

Livingston noted that consistent purchases of Bitcoin during savings have historically yielded stronger returns despite price volatility.

Related: Bitcoin’s Upward Momentum Accelerates, But Above $78K Remains Difficult

Long-term models emphasize the time horizon

Prospective simulations examine how the DCA strategy might work from 2026. A weekly DCA of $250 from January 2026 to March 2030 will allocate approximately $54,250.

Price assumptions are derived from the long-term Bitcoin law growth curve, which tracks the historical price of Bitcoin against time on a logarithmic scale. The model generates an ascending support band and a trend median that correspond to previous market cycles.

Using this framework, analysts estimate that by 2028, long-term trend support may rise above $100,000, which forms the main assumption for future DCA modeling. Simulations from Bitcoin Well place the average price by March 2030 near $430,278.

To get a wider range around this path, the model also takes into account the deviation bands of the power law channel, which creates a lower scenario near $274,000 and an upward expansion scenario near $900,000.

Under these assumptions, the weekly strategy would accumulate around 0.30 BTC over four years.

• At $274,000, the assets are worth about $82,200.

• At an average of $430,278, the investment value is $129,000.

• At $900,000 BTC, the investment is about $270,000.

A November 2025 study by Bitcoin researcher Sminston With tested how the time of entry affects long-term results using similar predictions. Even buying 20% ​​above $94,000 (BTC’s price at the time) and exiting 20% ​​below the projected 2035 median still yielded nearly 300% returns to the rest of the stock after ten years.

The total amount of savings reached 7.7 times the initial investment in the simulation.

The study concluded that entry time moderated the range of results, while longer retention periods produced the majority of results.

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