SAN JUAN, Puerto Rico — Building matchups based on predicted outcomes can be tricky and risky during short tournaments, especially ones as prone to randomness as the World Baseball Classic.
Canada knows all too well the downsides of this risk-reward approach. In the 2009 edition, when played in a double knockout elimination format, the full hosts decided to win and save their best starter, Scott Richmond, for what they thought would be the third game.
Instead, after dropping a thrilling 6-5 opener to the United States, the Canadians paid the price for overlooking the upstart Italian team and were shocked 6-2. To be fair, Canada could have lost the next game to Venezuela like Italy and gone home anyway, but Richmond left without throwing a ball, making the result even more precarious.
The best-laid plans can easily be ruined by one miscalculation or bad day. That’s why this Classic’s Pool A schedule provides Canadians with a valuable element of flexibility.
While Cuba opens play Friday against Panama (11 a.m. ET) and Puerto Rico takes on Colombia in the evening (6 p.m. ET) at Hiram Bison Stadium, the Canadians will enjoy a second day of practice ahead of Saturday’s opener against Colombia (11 a.m. ET).
Sunday night’s game against Panama (7 p.m. ET) follows before another off-day Monday, and that’s what projects in store for a high-stakes game against Puerto Rico on Tuesday (7 p.m. ET). Panama and Colombia will play pool, with only Cuba waiting in the pool finals on Wednesday at 3pm ET, so at that point it will be very clear what they need to do to advance to the quarterfinals.
“Our schedule is good,” coach Ernie Witt said ahead of Canada’s practice Thursday because it allows the team to adapt and make adjustments as needed based on actual standings rather than speculation about how other games will play out.
“We arrived late (Wednesday) night/early this morning and were able to relax for a day and a half (starting Saturday),” Whitt continued. “We’ll practice (Friday), tweak a few things and get ready to go. We’ll be watching and scouting the game on Friday, but hopefully we’ll get some ideas. I think our schedule is great.”
Beyond the clarity of the rankings, the scheduling benefits extend to pitcher usage, which is greatly limited in the Classic. First-round starters are limited to 65 pitches and anyone who pitches more than 50 must rest for four days, but Canada can reset its entire bullpen with Monday as an off day. Those who throw 30 to 49 balls only need to rest for one day and then throw again, and can compete on Tuesdays and Wednesdays in a row.
So while Canada plays straight through the first two games, with Michael Soroka starting Saturday and Jameson Taillon starting next Sunday, they could go in multiple directions after that with multiple options.
Cal Quantrill and Logan Allen have started two exhibition games this week, but openers and bullpen days are also a possibility depending on the standings.
“We will reevaluate what to do at that point,” Whitt said.
Meanwhile, Puerto Rico coach Yadier Molina announced Thursday that Seth Lugo will start against Colombia, followed by Eduardo Rivera against Panama and Elmer Rodriguez against Cuba.
“I’ll tell you about the fourth,” he added. But by then his options will be more limited for Canada.
The Puerto Ricans may have the most balanced roster in the pool, even without the likes of Francisco Lindor, Carlos Correa, Javier Baez and Jose Berrios, and a raucous crowd behind them.
“He’s going to be the No. 10 guy for us,” catcher Martin Maldonado said.
Colombian starting Jose Quintana will be the first to enter that cauldron and will also get a preview of their opponents in Canada.
“Hindering Puerto Rico will put you in a position to understand how you play against other teams, and that will help you move faster,” Colombia coach Jose Mosquera said. “This is a short tournament that can be over in the blink of an eye, so it’s important to know them as a team and how they compare to our level.”
Meanwhile, Panama opened the game with Logan Allen facing Cuba’s Livan Moinello on Friday and both clubs played cloak and dagger with pitching plans beyond that.
Nonetheless, while the other four teams are jumping into the pool on Friday, Canada will have to sit back and watch which way the waves go before joining the water. Apart from the American powerhouse and always-deep Mexico, there is a real chance that the country could leave Puerto Rico and advance to the quarterfinals of the Classic.
“Every time we take the field, we expect to win,” said Whitt, who has managed Canada in each Classic since the tournament began. “Have there been any disappointments? Absolutely. But we are very confident in this team that we have put together. They have come together as a team. We are a family and we know every game will be difficult. We cannot take anyone for granted. That is why we play the game. We will play it very aggressively and with a lot of passion and pride. So hopefully we can advance to the next round this time.”
Captain Josh Naylor added: “We’ve got a very skilled roster and great players. We expect to win every day and get to the next round and the next round after that.”
