US-Iran talks in Geneva focus on nuclear weapons, ballistic missiles

The third round of talks between the US and Iran began in Geneva on Thursday, with Iran under immense pressure to agree a nuclear deal with states and curb its nuclear and ballistic missile development programs.

The US has amassed a large military force in the Middle East ahead of the talks, and President Donald Trump warned last week that “bad things” would happen if Iran did not agree to a new nuclear deal.

On the eve of recent talks in Switzerland, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio warned that Iran’s reluctance to discuss the development of intercontinental ballistic missiles was a significant stumbling block.

“The talks (on Thursday) will be mostly focused on the nuclear program and we hope that progress can be made … but Iran refuses to talk to us or anybody about ballistic missiles — refuses and that’s a big problem,” he told reporters on Wednesday.

Rubio said that aside from the nuclear program, Iran’s conventional weapons are “designed only to attack America and attack Americans, if they decide to do so. These things need to be addressed.”

In his State of the Union address on Tuesday, Trump accused Tehran of working on rockets that could reach the US “soon” but did not present evidence to support his claim.

Asked how close Iran is to achieving such weapons that pose a direct threat to U.S. territory, Rubio said, “Clearly they are on a path to developing weapons that could one day reach the continental U.S. … and the ranges continue to grow exponentially every year,” calling it an “unsustainable threat.”

Thursday’s latest round of talks was led by US Ambassador Steve Wittkoff and Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner, while Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghi led the Tehran delegation. Oman is mediating the talks and the Omani ambassador’s residence to the United Nations is reportedly the venue for the talks.

Pressure is certainly mounting on Iran to agree to a deal that bows to US demands that it halt efforts to enrich uranium for nuclear weapons. But Iran has previously insisted that its missile program was not part of the agenda for talks with the US and that it was “non-negotiable”.

Iran has previously rejected US demands to stop enriching uranium within its territory, saying it is needed for energy production. Araghchi insisted that Iran “will not develop a nuclear weapon under any circumstances”. However, Tehran has indicated that it is ready to compromise to appease the US.

Araghi said on Wednesday that a “fair, balanced and equitable deal” would be covered but Iran’s foreign ministry spokesman Esmail Baghai told Iranian state TV that “Iran has come here with a very reasonable flexibility”. “Iran is entitled to use nuclear energy for peaceful purposes, which is a recognized right,” he said.

Araghi told CBS’ “Face the Nation” last Sunday that he is still working on a proposal that includes elements that accommodate the “concerns and interests” of both sides. He said the proposal would be discussed in Geneva and both sides would work on the text to try and reach a “speedy agreement”.

Tehran is desperate for sanctions relief as anti-government protests roil the regime over the country’s economy and authoritarian leadership. Those protests continued Thursday, with students leading recent demonstrations across Iranian universities.

Analysts are skeptical that the next 24 hours will lead to major breakthroughs in the crisis between the two sides but imminent US military action – which could cause turmoil in the wider Middle East and oil markets – is not an immediate threat for now.

Paul Musgrave, an associate professor of government at Georgetown University in Qatar, told CNBC that both sides will “reiterate their core interests” over the next 24 hours.

“On the Iranian side, I have to say it’s really simple to make sure that the regime is safe, making sure that they have the opportunity legally to pursue a nuclear weapon, and making sure that their conventional ballistic missile program remains intact,” he told CNBC’s Dan Murphy on Thursday.

“On the U.S. side, we’ve seen various goals expressed, some of which are inconsistent with others, from protecting protesters to trying to get rid of Iranian missiles, to trying to prohibit Iran from ever having a nuclear weapon. If you’re the Iranian government, you’re probably looking at this and trying to think what do Americans want from this?” He added.

“I don’t expect any major breakthrough in the next 24 hours, but in the next 24 hours, I don’t expect military attacks,” he said.