US intelligence agencies do not expect China to invade Taiwan in 2027 | Military news

US intelligence agencies say China’s leadership still prefers to pursue unification with Taiwan ‘without the use of force’.

United States intelligence agencies say China is pursuing its long-held goal of taking control of Taiwan, but they do not expect Beijing to launch an offensive next year, according to their latest threat assessment.

“(The intelligence community) assesses that Chinese leaders currently do not plan to execute an invasion of Taiwan in 2027, nor do they have a set timeline for achieving unification,” according to the US intelligence community’s 2026 annual threat assessment released Wednesday.

The year 2027 is considered an unofficial deadline in Washington for when the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) will be capable of launching an invasion of Taiwan, but US intelligence has said such a timeline does not mean Beijing will launch an attack.

“Beijing considers various factors in deciding whether and how to pursue military means to unification, including PLA readiness, actions and politics of Taiwan, and whether or not the US will intervene militarily on Taiwan’s behalf,” the report said.

The PLA is making “steady but uneven progress” and has “increased the scope, size and pace of operations around Taiwan” with military drills and operations, but the report adds that there are still several risks for China’s leadership.

US intelligence believes that despite the often tough language from Beijing about Taiwan, China’s leadership still “prefers to achieve unification without the use of force if possible”.

As Taiwan is the world’s top computer chipmaker and a fifth of global trade passes through the Taiwan Strait, China’s military aggression against the island would cause widespread economic disruption, the report said.

“Without Washington’s involvement, U.S. and global economic and security interests would face significant and costly consequences, disrupting tech supply chains and fear investors across markets,” the report said.

“Furthermore, a protracted war with the US would impose unprecedented economic costs on the US, Chinese and global economies,” it said.

‘No fixed timeline for Xi Jinping’

The US does not formally recognize Taiwan’s government, but it has pledged to help Taipei defend itself under the Taiwan Relations Act of 1979 and subsequent policies, including substantial arms sales and military training to Taiwan’s military. But Washington has remained deliberately vague on whether it would commit troops if China were to act against the island.

Bonnie Glaser, managing director of the Indo-Pacific program at the German Marshall Fund in the United States, said she agreed with the US intelligence assessment.

“Xi Jinping has no set timeline for reunification and prefers to achieve that goal without the use of force,” he said.

Glaser said the recent anti-corruption “purge” of senior officials in the PLA — a factor not mentioned in the report — makes China’s military option for Taiwan unlikely in the next few years.

According to the US-based CSIS China Power Project, Chinese President Xi Jinping has removed or removed nearly 100 high-ranking officials since 2022 in an anti-corruption sweep.

Kitsch Liao, a cyber and military affairs consultant at Taiwan’s Doublethink Lab, told Al Jazeera that the 2030s is the most dangerous time frame for Taiwan.

“The 2030s is the consensus of the intelligence community, and it’s based on capability, not intent,” he told Al Jazeera.

Beijing claims democratic Taiwan as a province and has vowed to annex it by 2049 — the 100-year anniversary of the People’s Republic of China — by peaceful or coercive means.

China considers Taiwan’s center-left government “separatists” and says the involvement of the US and other countries is “foreign interference” in domestic Chinese affairs.