US has no clear exit strategy from war with Iran: Russian ambassador to the UK

The US-Israel war against Iran is a “misadventure” whose objectives and exit strategy remain unclear, Russia’s ambassador to the UK told CNBC.

Andrey Kelin said that Russia has “a lot of sympathy” with Tehran and said that “the best end” to the escalation of the war in the Middle East is for it to “just prove that they are meaningless.”

“We are still trying to understand what President Trump’s goals are in this campaign. You know there have been a lot of doubts expressed about the exit strategy that the US administration may have in this effort,” Kelin told CNBC’s Steve Sedgwick in an interview recorded Thursday.

Russian President Vladimir Putin sent a message to Iran’s new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, earlier this week, offering his “unwavering support” to Tehran and saying the country “has been and will remain the reliable partner of the Islamic Republic.”

The war has raged for two weeks, with heavy attacks reported on Iran’s capital and shipping traffic through the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz severely disrupted.

The White House has said that the goals of Operation Epic Fury have been to destroy the ballistic missile arsenal and production capacity of Iran and its navy, cut off its support for its proxies in other countries and ensure that Iran can never acquire a nuclear weapon.

The White House said Thursday that these goals “have remained unchanged, unambiguous and consistent” since the operation began on February 28.

“We have a lot of sympathy with Iran. We also have a lot of sympathy with the Persian Gulf states, there is no doubt. As for the principle, I cannot understand the position when everyone blames Iran,” Kelin said.

“(The) crisis began, as I said, with the aggression of Israel and the United States against Iran and it was in the middle of talks, of course,” he continued, referring to negotiations on Iran’s nuclear program held in the Swiss city of Geneva last month.

“My president discussed this issue with the president of the United States, and by the way, we can make a good contribution to finishing and concluding it.”

CNBC has contacted a spokesperson for the White House and Israel’s Foreign Ministry and is awaiting a response.

Along with China, which has received millions of barrels of oil through the Strait of Hormuz even as war chokes the waterway, Russia is one of Iran’s most influential diplomatic partners.

“We have a strategic partnership with Iran. We are not allies in military terms, but we have a strategic partnership and we have a lot of communication in different fields,” Kelin told CNBC.

Asked to clarify whether Moscow has any military ties with Iran, Kelin replied: “I don’t comment on that side.”

UK Defense Secretary John Healy told reporters on Thursday that Putin’s “hidden hand” appears to be behind Iran’s military playbook, as well as potentially some of Tehran’s military capabilities.

Iran has reportedly fired more than 2,000 Shahed drones across the Middle East since the war began. These drones, which were first designed in Iran, were widely used during the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

On Ukraine, Russia’s Kelin said kyiv is moving “steadily” and “definitely” toward defeat after more than four years of war, despite little movement of Russian forces and mounting casualties.

When asked about the lack of movement of Russian forces, Kelin replied: “During the winter, of course, there was a certain lull. Right now, we have a spring problem with the roads because they are in bad condition but, believe me, what is on the table right now is about 10% of the Donbas territory, which is not yet under our control.”

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said earlier this week that the Kremlin’s own assessments estimate that more than 1.3 million Russian soldiers have been killed and wounded on the battlefield since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. CNBC could not independently verify this report.

A Center for Strategic and International Studies report published in January said Russian battlefield casualties are significantly higher than Ukrainian ones, with Ukrainian forces likely suffering between 500,000 and 600,000 casualties.

Kelin said he was confident that both Moscow and kyiv would eventually agree to a diplomatic solution to the war.

“I can’t say when it will happen, but a diplomatic solution is urgently needed,” Kelin said.

Kelin said the United States was “playing a constructive role in this diplomatic effort,” but added: “Given that Ukraine is not ready at this time and that Europe still prefers to support Ukraine as much as possible, supply it with weapons, money… without making any effort to request or assist this diplomatic solution, this will last for some time.”

US-brokered talks on the Ukraine war have been put on hold due to the conflict with Iran, and US special envoy Steve Witkoff told CNBC on Tuesday that discussions would likely take place next week. Ukraine’s Zelenskyy had urged the United States not to lift sanctions on Russia before those talks, although the White House has since moved to temporarily lift sanctions on Russian crude at sea.

European Union foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas recently said there appears to be “no end in sight” to Russia’s large-scale invasion of Ukraine.

At a news conference on Monday, he said it is clear that the Russian military was “stagnant” and that its economy is in sharp decline.

“Russia’s maximalist demands cannot be met with a minimalist response,” Kallas said. “It’s just common sense: if Ukraine’s military is going to be limited in size, Russia’s should be too.”