Speaking at the Caribbean Community (CARICOM) summit on Wednesday, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio welcomed the additional commitments. Kenya led mission In Haiti, countries such as Canada and Japan are expected to contribute. If deployed successfully, the force would stabilize parts of the country and create conditions for a return to constitutional rule, he said.
Still on the ground in Haiti, scale Political and institutional collapse raises serious doubts about whether elections can be organized in any credible manner.
“Those gangs are not a new phenomenon,” said Rorom Chantal, a former Haitian journalist and now a professor of political science at the Université de Moncton. “State weakness has repeatedly forced those in power to rely on irregular armed groups. Over time, those groups gain autonomy.”
under Duvalier DictatorshipThe Voluntaires de la Securité Nationale (VSN) acted as a paramilitary force to secure the regime. In the 2000s, armed loyalists known as “Chimers” mobilized around former president Jean-Bertrand Aristide. What began as political instruments gradually evolved into entrenched armed actors with their own territorial and economic bases.
Unresolved political tensions
The Withdrawal of the UN Stabilization Mission in Haiti in 2017 (MINUSTAH), deployed after Aristide’s ouster, left behind a weakened police force and unresolved political tensions.
Chantal argues that rather than strengthening national institutions, the mission has gradually replaced itself. “MINUSTAH has replaced the Haitian National Police instead of increasing its capacity,” he said. “When it was withdrawn, the police were not in a position to take possession.”
Read moreHow a lack of leadership allowed gangs to take over Haiti
The security vacuum widened. Political instability deepened after billions of dollars were diverted from the PetroCarib oil program Massive protests will start from 2018. Armed groups expanded, grew wealthier and more visible, asserting control over Port-au-Prince and key transport routes.
As of July 2025, About 90 percent of capital Estimated to be under their influence.
“The Haitian police are not up to the task,” said Alex Dupuy, a retired sociology professor at Wesleyan University. “They don’t have the firepower or equipment to do what the army can do”. Dupuy warned that the Kenyan-led mission “has so far not done much to pacify the country” and its troops “know nothing about Haiti and don’t speak the language”, limiting their effectiveness outside the capital.
There is no reliable electoral register
More than a million people have been displaced by mob violence, creating another obstacle to the election. “They will be able to return to their homes to participate in these elections,” Dupuy said. “If that doesn’t happen, universal participation is simply impossible.”
And even if an anti-gang force is successfully deployed, the extent of the political and institutional breakdown makes holding a credible vote a daunting challenge.
“There is no reliable electoral registry, no functioning political party system and no real ability to organize a vote that is recognized as legitimate,” said Eduardo Gamarra, a professor at Florida International University. “A reliable electoral roll is the foundation of any democratic process.”
View moreHaiti: Ingrid Arnesen reflects on the end of the Transitional Presidential Council
Beyond technological barriers lies the issue of impunity. “The United States, Canada and the United Nations have sanctioned prominent Haitian political and business figures accused of financing armed groups,” argued Chantal. “Yet none of them have been prosecuted. If those who finance and arm these groups are never held accountable, it will be very difficult to dismantle the system.”
A Territorial Agreement Prime Minister Alix Didier Fils-Aimé, who arrived on Monday, identified him as head of the executive branch and outlined plans to restore security, organize elections and help victims of gang violence. However, the agreement does not set any clear deadline for him to leave office, raising questions about when a fully elected government will take over.
‘Anything is possible in Haiti’
The international community’s renewed push to stabilize Haiti also unfolds amid growing fatigue. “There is a sense of ‘Haiti fatigue,'” Gamarra said, explaining that there is a waning appetite among donors and governments to commit large amounts of resources without a clear political roadmap.
“At the same time, armed groups have grown richer and more autonomous”. They are Recruit children From poor neighborhoods where schools are closed and economic prospects are scarce”, Gamarra adds. “Some distribute food or money in areas they control, strengthening local loyalty while demonstrating authority through social media”, comments Chantal.
View moreHaiti faces humanitarian, health care pressures as gang violence disrupts NGO operations
For Gamarra, uncertainty opens up two possible trajectories. One involves sustained force to dismantle gangs. Another, more controversial, could see some armed actors seeking political integration rather than continued confrontation.
“Anything is possible in Haiti,” Gamarra said. “Gangs may decide that running for office is more convenient than fighting.”
However, for Chantal, mere security operations or unaccountable political integration risk perpetuating the cycle. “Strengthening the police, investing in the youth and holding those who finance violence to account are essential if the elections are to mean more than a procedural milestone,” he said.
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