‘Unpleasant surprises’: Do major French cities elect far-right mayors? | The Far Right News

Paris, France – France heads to the polls on Sunday for local elections to put mayors and city council members in the final round of voting.

Municipal elections, which come a year before France’s presidential polls, offer a glimpse of the country’s political landscape.

In Sunday’s first round, France’s far-right National Rally performed slightly less than expected. But it still made a profit in major southern cities, including Nice, Toulon and Marseille.

“The results for the National Rally and the right in general are worse than expected, because their goal is to establish a base and win medium-sized cities, to scale, but it seems that is not happening,” journalist Jean-Francois Poupelin of Marseille’s Marsactu told Al Jazeera.

“On the other hand, they have already increased the number of municipalities they run compared to 2020.”

In the last mayoral race, the right wing had a majority in 17 municipalities. Sunday’s results indicate victory in 24 municipalities. In the other 60 municipalities, right-wing parties have taken the lead.

Nice and Toulon are two big cities that are set to elect far-right mayors.

‘We could be in for some unpleasant surprises’

In Marseille, incumbent mayor Benoit Payan is locked in a run-off with right-wing National Rally candidate Frank Alissio.

“We may be in for some unpleasant surprises,” Poupelin said. “We can see major cities like Nice and Toulon turning the other way. Since (left-wing party France Unbod) LFI has recently withdrawn in Marseille, we think the city won’t turn right.”

Absenteeism is another big topic.

After the 2020 elections affected by the COVID-19 pandemic, the first-round turnout was 57 percent, the second lowest in the history of France’s Fifth Republic, according to Interior Ministry figures.

In Marseille, “voter turnout is low, especially in working-class neighborhoods … where (leftist party France Unbod) LFI is expected to do much better”, Poupelin said. “Absenteeism is an important issue in both the second round of municipal elections and the presidential election, as voter absenteeism often works in favor of a national rally.”

‘Real, significant gains’

Colin Baptiste, a 31-year-old theater production assistant in Marseille, told Al Jazeera, “A lot of people around me didn’t vote. There was a lack of interest.”

“Many did not understand these elections because of the new rules. For example, in Marseille, we had to vote for the arrondissement mayor and then the city mayor. Second, with the strong performance of the National Rally in the elections, people thought they already knew the results.”

For Colin, the close mayoral race is concerning.

“I’m obviously a bit alarmed, especially in Marseille, by the rise of the national rally, these are real, significant gains,” Colin said. “The far right is effectively becoming a new force.

“Marseille is a classic example of this, where the centre-right, once strong, is collapsing, handing over all its votes to the National Rally.”

Traditional law is disintegrating in much of France, said Rim-Sarah Alouan, a legal scholar and associate researcher of public law at Toulouse Capitole University.

“My main concern is to normalize the right wing with the traditional right,” Alowan told Al Jazeera. “We are seeing an evolving relationship between the traditional right-wing party and the far-right. In several municipalities, the results indicate a growing accessibility between these two political spaces.

Although voters have different considerations for municipal elections and presidential votes, the results so far speak to larger trends in France’s political landscape.

“The municipal elections of 2026, we can broadly interpret as an initial test before the next presidential cycle. The results of the first round show a political system in transition, fragmented and regionally polarized. No political force seems capable of dominating the national arena,” Alowan said.

“The first round of elections doesn’t just reflect local dynamics. It reveals a deep transformation in the French party system itself and clearly gives an early indication of some kind of political restructuring that will shape national politics in the coming year.”

Although the right-wing has not made the massive gains some feared, the gradual victories should still raise alarm bells, Alowan said.

“The right-wing is slowly but surely gaining more and more voters. Whether they are voting out of conviction or against someone, they are now part of the landscape,” he said. “It’s not a nuclear victory, but how they progress. They don’t do it all at once. It’s step by step and their strategy is working well.”

When the rightists gain control of a municipality, they stay in power for years.

“Once they’re in power, they stick around — at least in the South, but it’s similar in the North. Their policies are very concentrated so it’s very hard to dislodge them,” Poupelin said.

The far-right often focuses on tax cuts, public safety and reducing subsidies to “community” institutions, according to Poupelin, who analyzed the administrative accounts of 10 municipalities in southeastern France to see how money was distributed to local institutions when the right-wing was in power.

Organizations that focus on working-class neighborhoods, vulnerable populations and immigrants are often targeted, he said.

“Social services shrink significantly and in some cases disappear in those cities,” Poupelin said. “In Fréjus, for example, community centers have gradually closed.”

When youth social centers disappear, it negatively affects the entire neighborhood.

“These are kids who no longer have places to meet or play, so they stay outside, which inevitably leads to misbehavior and other problems. So, we see a lost generation in those neighborhoods,” Poupelin said.

As Colin votes again on Sunday, he retains some optimism despite a close race in Marseille.

“There’s still a glimmer of hope that it’s not a total loss. There’s still some gains on the left,” Colin said.

Once, they hope it will rain in the southern city and draw more people away from the sea and to the polls.

“The weather wasn’t great last weekend, which encouraged people to vote instead of going to the beach,” Colin said. “I hope it doesn’t get any better on Sunday, so people will do the same.”