The United States, which halted military and economic aid to Ukraine under President Donald Trump, has asked Kyiv for help in protecting its bases from Iranian retaliatory attacks in the Gulf.
Andriy Kovalenko, head of Ukraine’s Center for Combating Disinformation, made the request public on March 6.
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Two days later, President Volodymyr Zelenskyi said Ukraine would send military experts to the Gulf.
On March 9, Zelensky sent chief negotiator Rustem Umerov to sell Ukrainian interceptor drones to the Gulf states.
The US and more than 10 European and Middle Eastern countries have already reached out to Ukraine, “requesting our support for their defensive capabilities,” Zelensky said.
Ukraine had a vested interest in answering that call, Zelenskyy said.
“Stability is important to us. Those who are seeking Ukraine’s help now must continue to help in our own defense,” he said.
Ukraine has entered into drone co-production agreements with several European allies. A similar proposal has been submitted to America.
“Everyone now sees that there is no alternative to this approach,” he said.
Russia is helping Iran target US assets and allies in the Gulf, the Washington Post reported on March 6, citing three unnamed US officials. Washington perceives Iran as an enemy, but not Russia. Moscow’s deal could help Ukraine change that perception and realign Washington with Kyiv and its European allies.
Ukraine had other vested interests in helping the Gulf states.
As Iran manages to close the Strait of Hormuz to tankers, much of the world’s oil is locked out of the market, driving up prices.
To mitigate the impact on allies, the Trump administration lifted restrictions on purchases of Russian crude on April 4, a windfall worth billions to Russian oil companies and President Vladimir Putin’s war chest.
The Financial Times estimates that Moscow has already received a windfall of $1.3bn to $1.9bn in taxes from oil exports.
Benchmark Brent crude has risen nearly $20 since the war in the Gulf began, which could generate an estimated $3.3bn for Russian coffers, according to one estimate.
Indian imports of Russian oil have risen by nearly 50 percent and on March 13, 30 tankers carrying 19 million barrels of Russian crude were reported to be waiting for buyers in the Asian market.
Ukraine had further incentives.
Gulf states are reportedly using expensive Patriot interceptors to get drones on their way, as they lack cheaper alternatives.
“Only other cheap drones can counter large numbers of cheap drones, not expensive missiles,” Kovalenko wrote in Telegram.
“Why are we using Patriots against Shahed drones?” asked General Ben Hodges, former commander of US forces in Europe. “There are technologies the Ukrainians are developing that are great for counter-drone. You don’t want to waste a Patriot interceptor against a Shahed drone.”
Ukraine lacks Patriot interceptors, which are effective against the ballistic missiles Russia launches against its infrastructure every week, and has asked countries that have the interceptors to sell or donate them.
University of Chicago history professor John Mearsheimer summarizes Russia’s benefits from the war on Iran launched by the US and Israel on February 28.
“This war is fantastic news for the Russians. First, it means the US is wasting precious assets on this fight that the Europeans could otherwise buy to give to the Ukrainians,” Mearsheimer said. “I think there’s no question it’s going to hurt the Ukrainians on the battlefield … the demand for Russian oil and gas is going to increase.”
“Ukrainian experts will work on the ground to support real efforts to stabilize the situation and, in particular, to restore safe navigation in the region,” Ukrainian Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov said.
The value of Ukraine’s expertise
On March 4, the fifth day of the war on Iran, Ukraine said Iran had already fired 800 missiles and 1,400 drones against the Gulf states.
Ukraine has experience in defending against swarms of drones.
Over the past week, Russia has shot down 90 percent of the 1,250 drones it launched and more than half of 34 missiles, it said. Most of those drones are Shaheds — the same Iranian design that Iran flies to its Gulf neighbors.
“Our goal is to identify 100 percent of air threats in real time and intercept at least 95 percent of missiles and drones,” said Fedorov, who is in talks with the governments of Qatar, the UAE, Jordan and Bahrain.
Fedorov revealed that Ukrainian drone operators are now responsible for 96 percent of Russian casualties.
Zelensky said Ukraine’s military intelligence (GUR) had obtained Russian documents documenting 1.3 million casualties for the entire war, 62 percent of them deaths — a higher percentage than Ukraine had previously assumed.
Ukraine is now automating feedback from its drones to better determine which types are most effective.
Mission Control, the command system, automatically generates reports on the effectiveness of each drone mission. It will eliminate frontline units of paper reports and give commanders “real-time operational tracking,” the ministry said. “This is the first time procurement decisions are automatically generated based on real combat data,” Fedorov said.
Ukraine has also been effective in hitting Russian defense industries.
On March 10, it used Storm Shadow/SCALP missiles to strike the Kremni L microchip factory in the city of Bryansk — the first time it has reportedly used a drone to better guide missiles.
Five missiles reportedly hit the facility.
Kremni L claims to be the largest manufacturer of chips for the Russian military, which are used in cruise missiles used by Russia to attack Ukraine.
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