Britain should have a completely independent nuclear deterrent as it can no longer rely on the United States, Ed Davey is expected to say on Sunday.
In a speech at the Liberal Democrats’ spring conference, the party leader will argue that the UK should make and maintain its nuclear weapons in Britain, a move Davey acknowledges will cost billions.
Davey’s speech will come amid his claims that US President Donald Trump has conditioned his support for European security on his personal whims.
“As long as Trump is in charge, we certainly can’t rely on the United States as a reliable ally like we used to,” Davey will say. “And we can no longer bet our nation’s security on the hope that the United States will not produce new versions of Trump in the future.
“So the real question is not whether we should build a sovereign British nuclear deterrent. The question is what will happen if we don’t.”
In theory, a British prime minister could choose to launch nuclear missiles without the participation of its allies, including the United States.
However, the UK’s nuclear programme, Trident, based at Faslane near Glasgow on the River Clyde, is heavily dependent on American input. The guns are manufactured in the United States and must be returned there periodically for maintenance.
Davey’s speech is likely to be seen as the latest installment in what has been dubbed Operation Epsom Fury: a play on Trump’s Iranian mission and an attempt to appeal to voters disillusioned by Britain’s relationship with the president ahead of local elections in May.
“If the answer to ‘Is our nuclear deterrent working?’ It depends on what Donald Trump had for breakfast, so the answer is, “No, it’s not.” And our deterrent is not truly independent,” Davey is expected to tell delegates in York.
“This should keep British defense planners awake at night. Yet it is not raised strongly enough in our public debate. Perhaps because conservative and reformist commentators do not want to face Trump’s profound implications.
“Our nuclear deterrent – the ultimate guarantor of our national security, what successive governments of all stripes have described as the basis of British defense – is not entirely ours.
“The Trident missiles found on our Vanguard submarines are leased from the United States. They are dependent on American facilities for maintenance. And that means the operability of our deterrent ultimately depends on the good will of whoever occupies the Oval Office.
“A few years ago, that didn’t seem like a problem. It certainly seems like it now.”
Davey will cite Trump’s threat to annex Greenland and his apparent failure to criticize Russian President Vladimir Putin over the war in Ukraine as evidence that he is an increasingly unreliable ally.
“He and his White House lackeys have made it clear, repeatedly and unequivocally, that American support for European security is conditional,” Davey will say. “Conditional on European countries doing what Trump wants, whether on trade, relations with China or simply being nice to him. Certainly nothing to do with the values and alliances that have kept us safe for 80 years.”
Davey is expected to admit that building a nuclear capability without US involvement “would cost billions over the next two decades” at a time when defense spending is already under pressure.
However, he will add that instead of “handing billions of taxpayers’ hard-earned money to the US defense and technology industry”, the money should be invested in the UK.
“Let us invest in British science and manufacturing, strengthen our defense industry and ensure a fully independent deterrent that we can rely on, no matter who occupies the Oval Office,” he will say.
The Liberal Democrats have said they remain committed to the goal of multilateral nuclear disarmament.
However, Davey will say: “With Vladimir Putin sitting atop an arsenal of more than 5,000 nuclear warheads, we must deal with the world as it is. Trump’s reckless and unpredictable presidency – and the reality that we can no longer count on America as we once assumed we could – is a challenge we cannot ignore.”
