UFC Mexico City Betting Prediction: Moreno vs. Cabana Fight Night Picks

For the eighth time in the promotion’s history, the UFC Octagon returns to Mexico City. This weekend’s UFC Fight Night – UFC Mexico City – takes place at Arena CDMX in the Mexican capital.

The UFC has been in the city every few years. Last time we saw a card in the main event where Brandon Moreno nearly swept the scorecards against Steve Erceg. Rumors abounded that the card would not be held in Mexico City this week due to the ever-evolving violent situation in Mexico. But for the UFC, everything is ahead.

Mexican-born former UFC flyweight champion Moreno will return to action in the main event of UFC Mexico City when he takes on Roner Cabana. Moreno was originally booked to face Assu Almabaev, but Cabana stepped in after Almabaev suffered a hand injury.

Moreno is 2-3 since losing the title to Alexandre Pantoja at UFC 290 and will be looking to bounce back from his TKO loss to Tyra Tatsuro at UFC 323. Meanwhile, Cabana signed a contract with the UFC in 2024 after defeating An Tuan Ho by knockout on Dana White’s Contender Series. He won his first two fights by decision, but suffered his first career loss against Charles Johnson at UFC Shanghai in August.

The co-main event will see Marlon “Chito” Vera look to continue his winning ways in the UFC and take his best to three fights against David Martinez as he looks to move to 3-0.

The rest of the main card features Daniel Zellhuber vs. King Green, Edgar Chairez vs. Felipe Bunes, Imanol Rodriguez vs. Kevin Borjas, and Santiago Luna vs. Angel Pacheco.

Brandon Moreno VS. LONE’ER CABANA

The question at this point is whether we are witnessing the beginning of Brandon Moreno’s downfall, but I really don’t think we are. And even if it’s the start of something, it doesn’t seem to be visible in this fight. Kavanagh is coming out of nowhere and I wouldn’t put up with a knockout loss to Charles Johnson against him (he KO’d Joshua Van). But he’s still early in his career, he’s not at his strongest, and he’s up against a world-class athlete and former world champion.

A fight like this in Moreno’s home country is the perfect rebound fight to show he’s still in the top half of the UFC’s flyweight ranks and get him back in gear for another massive flyweight showdown later this year. But I don’t think Kavanagh has a weak chin and Moreno thinks it’s more dangerous to finish on the ground than on the feet. I think this works more in favor of “The Assassin Baby.”

BET: Moreno via decision (FanDuel: +185)

Imanol Rodriguez VS. Kevin Borjas

The UFC had high hopes for Rodriguez as a potential star. Rodriguez was one of the key talents on season 33 of The Ultimate Fighter last year, losing to eventual flyweight champion Joseph Morales in a controversial decision. Rodriguez got another opportunity a few months later on Dana White’s Contender Series, knocking out Roque Conceição in the first round.

Borjas doesn’t have the best record on paper, but going a long way with future (and current) UFC flyweight champion Joshua Van is a solid mark on his resume. But Borjas will have to fight smart and strategic. Otherwise, he will be eliminated quickly. Borjas can take this distance, but I think he will finish at some point during the bout due to Rodriguez’s strength and skill.

Bet: Rodriguez via KO/TKO/DQ (FanDuel: +120)

Aline Perez VS. Macy Chiasson

Allin Perez is currently on a good run coming off his UFC debut, with a 12-2 record and five straight wins. Former TUF winner Macy Chiasson was on a decent run, but came into this match on the back of two straight losses.

There’s a lot of momentum on Perez’s side, but neither woman is the biggest finisher in the Octagon. And that’s what I’m leaning towards here.

BET: Perez calls (FanDuel: -105)