The airline and tourism industries are struggling to cope with the fallout from the escalating US and Israeli air war against Iran, while governments have rushed to bring stranded travelers home from the Middle East after more than 20,000 flights were canceled in just a few days.
Major Gulf hubs, including Dubai, the world’s busiest international airport, remained closed or severely restricted for a fourth day on Tuesday, leaving tens of thousands of passengers stranded. According to Flightradar24, some 21,300 flights have been canceled at seven major airports, including Dubai, Doha and Abu Dhabi, since the strikes began.
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The attacks have disrupted travel in a growing region that is home to several thriving commercial centers and is trying to diversify away from oil-dominated economies. The upheaval also shrinks an already reduced flight corridor for long-haul flights between Europe and Asia, complicating operations for global airlines.
Gulf airlines Emirates, flydubai and Etihad have been operating a limited number of flights since Monday, mainly to repatriate stranded passengers, who have scrambled to get seats.
“It’s pretty much the biggest shutdown we’ve seen since the COVID pandemic,” said Paul Charles, chief executive of luxury travel consultancy PC Agency, adding that beyond the disruption to passengers, the impact on cargo would run into “billions of dollars.”
‘Leave now’
The United Arab Emirates said 60 flights had taken off, operating in dedicated emergency air corridors. The next phase will operate more than 80 flights.
Meanwhile, the US State Department has urged all Americans to leave more than a dozen countries in the region, while other nations have rushed to organize repatriation flights for their citizens even as explosions devastated Tehran and Beirut.
But with airspace closed or restricted across the Gulf, many were unsure what to do.
“They say, ‘Get out,’ but how do they expect us to get out when the airspace is closed?” said Odies Turner, a 32-year-old chef from Dallas stuck in Doha, Qatar. “They’ve just been canceling all the flights. I want to come home.”
Mora Namdar, U.S. Undersecretary of State for Consular Affairs, posted on
The United States is securing military and charter flights to evacuate Americans from the Middle East, a State Department official said in X on Tuesday, adding that it was in contact with nearly 3,000 American citizens. The department came under fire from US lawmakers who said the Trump administration should have advised people to leave before the attacks began.
Demand for alternatives to Gulf airlines has increased, with bookings and ticket prices rising on routes such as Hong Kong-London, Reuters checks showed on Tuesday. If the conflict persists, it could cost the Middle East billions of dollars in tourism, analysts estimate.
“We can’t go back home, we can’t go back to work, we can’t get the kids back to school,” said Tatiana Leclerc, a French tourist stuck in Thailand, whose flight was scheduled to pass through Middle Eastern hubs that are a key link between Asia and Europe.
Anita Mendiratta, an international aviation and tourism consultant stuck in Bangkok, said the location of the war would inevitably disrupt travel and trade.
“Indeed, within the Middle East, an eight-hour flight distance covers two-thirds of the world’s population,” he said. “When that corridor is blocked, it forces aviation to move north, potentially entering other conflicted airspace, like Russia, like Pakistan, or fly south. That puts enormous pressure on the airlines.”
In an early sign of a thaw, Virgin Atlantic said on Tuesday it would resume services as planned between London Heathrow airport and Dubai or Riyadh.
Airline finances under pressure
Airline stocks around the world fell on Tuesday, although U.S. stocks pared losses in afternoon trading. The operational and financial effect varies significantly between airlines, said Karen Li, head of Asia transportation, industrial and infrastructure research at JP Morgan.
“There are important differences between airlines, in terms of hedging strategy, air cargo exposure and network rerouting capabilities, which will determine the actual impact of the situation in the Middle East,” Li said.
Oil prices have soared amid the widening conflict. Benchmark crude oil has risen about 30 percent so far this year, threatening to raise jet fuel costs and squeeze airline profits as most airlines have long since given up covering their fuel purchases, their second-largest operating cost after labor.
In its latest annual filing, Delta Air said every 1-cent increase in the price of jet fuel per gallon added about $40 million to its annual fuel bill; A 10 percent increase would add $1 billion to Delta’s fuel bill by 2026, Third Bridge analyst Peter McNally said.
