This is why Arthur Hayes is buying Bitcoin again

Arthur Hayes says he’s waiting for central banks to print again before buying bitcoin, although he expects BTC to hit $100,000.

BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes said he wouldn’t buy Bitcoin (BTC) today if he only had $1 to invest.

However, he still expects the cryptocurrency to eventually return above $100,000 after central banks return to printing money.

Awaiting the publication of the Federation

In a March 10 interview with Natalie Brunell at CoinStories, Hayes argued that the ongoing conflict pitting the US and Israel against Iran poses a real risk of a market-wide selloff that could push BTC below $60,000.

“There’s a sense that the longer this goes on, there could be a massive selloff in stocks, and bitcoin could go a little lower, could break $60,000, and it could be some kind of big liquidation cascade,” Hayes said in an interview.

According to him, every major Middle East conflict in his lifetime has finally prompted the Fed to print, prompting him that the signal to watch is not the war itself, but what central banks do in response.

“If I had $1 right now, would I put it in Bitcoin? No,” he said. “I would wait. I think the longer this conflict goes on, the more likely it is that the Fed will print money to support the American war machine, and that’s when I’ll buy Bitcoin.”

However, he cautioned against trying to time the moment, noting that most people follow the same basic coverage and can potentially misread the situation.

Asked why he thought BTC had underperformed over the past 6 to 9 months, the former BitMEX CEO pointed to what he described as a liquidity deficit rather than weak demand for the cryptocurrency itself.

“Bitcoin is a liquidity alarm,” he said, arguing that job displacement by AI would quietly create deflationary pressure on the US economy. In his view, the liquidity of the dollar is not sufficient to offset other capital requirements, particularly the costs of large technology companies building data center infrastructure.

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No grand plans to suppress Bitcoin

Hayes also pushed back on the idea that institutions or large market makers like Jane Street are suppressing the price of BTC.

“I don’t think there’s any nefarious conspiracy by Jane Street and other market makers to manipulate prices to lower prices or anything like that,” he said.

The cryptocurrency trader often attributed such claims to investors looking for someone to blame after bad imports and advised anyone to avoid leverage and short positions altogether.

Personally, he described himself as “very long bitcoin and structured coins and other coins,” adding that the need for stateless money is much stronger now than when Bitcoin was launched in 2009.

Hayes’ comments come as bitcoin trades just below the $70,000 mark after months of sideways price action. However, contrary to the BitMEX co-founder’s suggestion that the asset could fall to $60,000, analyst Markus Thielen believes that BTC’s path over the past week, rising oil prices and geopolitical noise, was a bullish sign that moved to $80,000.