Think Russian oil will calm Iran conflict supply fears? Here’s what the math reveals.

The United States will temporarily allow Russia to sell oil already loaded on tankers at sea, freeing up 120 million to 130 million barrels of crude to soothe markets battered by the weeks-long standoff with Iran.

The move could put some barrels into circulation relatively quickly because one of the world’s major sea lanes, the Strait of Hormuz, is effectively blocked.

However, analysts say the oil volume is not meaningfully sufficient to reverse the brief curbs over supply fears in the Persian Gulf that have gripped global markets for the past two weeks.

“In terms of global oil, this is just another day of global demand,” Nigel Green, chief executive of De Vere Group, told MarketWatch. “As such it is not a structural change in supply,” he said of Russian oil being brought online.

Still, what makes Russian oil interesting is speed. “These are barrels that are already there and in many cases already in the ocean,” Green said. Once legal restrictions are eased, they could reach refineries within days or weeks, Green said.

In late February 2022, the United States imposed an embargo on Russian oil after Moscow’s attack on Ukraine. On Thursday, the U.S. Treasury Department said it will allow until April 11 to ship and sell crude and oil products from Russia that have already been loaded on ships at sea.

Sanctions relief would “rent some time” and ease some of the physical market pressure currently under the global oil market, said Taylor Rishi, associate editor of Sevens Report research. However, this will not see the end of geopolitical fear bidding in energy markets, he added.

“Reopening the Strait of Hormuz alone will really eliminate the current historic supply glut,” Rishi said, leading to higher oil prices.

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The US and Israel launched coordinated military strikes against Iran on February 28, resulting in devastation in the oil-rich Middle East. The passage of oil and cargo ships through the Strait of Hormuz was effectively halted.

Cargoes that moved into the Gulf before the strait closure are still reaching their destinations, strategists at JP Morgan wrote in a note on Friday, but new shipments have largely stopped. So the incoming supply pipeline is constantly running dry and is likely to run out this weekend for shipments to Asia and next weekend for shipments to Europe.

Strategists said production fell due to a lack of storage space in the region, and the decline reached 6.5 million barrels per day. That number is likely to reach 12 million barrels per day by the end of next week, “the deficit in physical markets is very evident.”

An estimated 20 million barrels of oil are transported by water each day, and the loss of that many barrels has contributed sharply to commodity prices. So far this month, U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude is up 47% through Friday CL.1, while global benchmark Brent crude BRN00 prices are up 42%, according to Dow Jones Markets data.

To help address a potential supply shortfall, the International Energy Agency announced Wednesday the release of 400 million barrels of oil from emergency reserves — the largest release of its kind. As part of that, the United States said the Energy Department would withdraw 172 million barrels from the nation’s strategic petroleum reserves.

read: Trump is using the US’s strategic petroleum reserves to combat rising oil prices. How much fuel is left now?

The United States is also considering issuing a waiver to the Jones Act, a law that allows U.S.-built ships to transport cargo between domestic ports.

read: Trump’s next move to curb the oil glut may include the 1920 Shipping Act

But until rain starts flowing freely through the Persian Gulf, analysts say the global oil market will be defined by the barrels it’s missing, not by the number of barrels policymakers are trying to free up.