The 2026 primary season, in which U.S. voters determine which candidates will represent the major Republican and Democratic political parties in the November midterm elections, has begun in earnest with votes in Texas, North Carolina and Arkansas.
The election began just four days after the United States and Israel launched attacks on Iran, sparking a regional war that has seen Iran launch retaliatory attacks across the Middle East. The fighting has so far left hundreds dead, including at least 787 in Iran, six members of the US military and several civilians across the Gulf.
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At the same time, the war has touched on several issues expected to dominate the U.S. midterm season, with Democrats criticizing concerns about America’s affordability and Republicans seeking to reconcile President Donald Trump’s “America First” votes with latest military adventurism.
The result of Tuesday’s elections will give an early temperature of the American electorate ahead of the midterm vote, which will determine whether Republicans maintain their slim control over both the Senate and the House of Representatives.
One of the biggest tests will be in Texas, where Democrats have long hoped to win statewide office, something they haven’t done since 1994.
Some political observers have suggested that a showdown between Democratic challenger James Talarico, who has presented himself as a liberal, centrist Christian seeking to speak directly to Trump voters, and Republican challenger Ken Paxton, who has warmed to Trump, could give Democrats the best chance of winning a U.S. Senate seat.
Talarico, a seminary student, has taken a careful line on the Iran war, posting after Saturday’s attacks: “No more forever wars,” a reference to Trump’s own campaign promise.
In a later speech, Talarico made reference to U.S. service members killed since the war began, but otherwise avoided delving into the politically charged topic.
His opponent in the Senate primary, Democratic Congresswoman Jasmine Crockett, has taken a more confrontational approach, in keeping with a fiery, direct style she says the party needs in the era of Trump.
“The question is: How many more lives will have to be lost before people heed the warnings?” he said in a video response to the attacks, noting the large population of American veterans in the state.
“This president has committed acts of lawlessness since the day he took office and, unfortunately, it is us, we Americans, who are going to suffer.”
Paxton, the current attorney general of Texas, has defended Trump’s attacks, but apparently with an eye toward the growing unrest sparked by Trump’s “Make America Great Again” (MAGA) movement. In the final stretch of the race, he assured reporters that Trump was seeking a quick end to the fighting.
“He wants to get this over with,” she said.
Incumbent Senator John Cornyn has also said he was satisfied with Trump’s justifications for the attack, with the president describing Iran’s ballistic and nuclear capabilities as an imminent threat to the United States, claims for which he has provided little evidence.
“It takes a lot of political courage, because it’s easier to start these things than it is to finish them,” Cornyn said in an interview with Face the Nation published Monday.
A test of party leadership
To be sure, the war has overlaid, rather than transformed, many of the issues that already dominated the race, including the cost of living, immigration, artificial intelligence, housing, health care and civil rights under the Trump administration.
In North Carolina, progressive candidate Nida Allam was quick to link the war to the support her opponent, incumbent Rep. Valerie Foushee, received from defense contractors and artificial intelligence super PACs, as well as her previous support from the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC).
The issue dovetails with Allam’s opposition to an AI data center in his district, in a race that has become the most expensive in state history.
In an ad released Monday, Allam focused on the bombing of a girls’ school in Minab, Iran, which left at least 165 dead, calling herself a “proudly uncompromising peace leader.”
Meanwhile, Foushee has co-sponsored legislation to curb Trump’s ability to attack Iran, accusing the president of “violating the Constitution and risking another open war with no clear objectives and no exit strategy.”
Both parties will also select their candidates to run for the vacant Senate seat left by outgoing Republican Thom Tillis. Democrats expect a setback in November in the so-called “purple” state. have a roughly equal composition of Democrats and Republicans.
Former Gov. Roy Cooper, who has warned of “another costly, protracted war that puts our troops in harm’s way and diverts attention and resources from needs here at home,” is considered the front-runner in the crowded Democratic primary, which includes five other candidates.
On the Republican side, former Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Whatley, who has been endorsed by Trump and has vowed to remain the president’s “ally in the Senate,” is expected to win in a six-candidate Republican race.
A wave of Democratic turnout on Tuesday would be a sign of strength heading into the November elections.
Opposing parties typically do well in U.S. midterm elections, and polls have shown dismay over Trump’s immigration policies, his management of the U.S. economy and his military actions in Venezuela and, more recently, Iran.
Republicans have sought to seize on Trump’s claims about the success of his policies during a first term that has stretched presidential norms and transformed government.
Also closely watched will be the U.S. Senate race in Texas between Rep. Al Green, 78, who was kicked out of Trump’s State of the Union address earlier this month after holding a sign accusing the president of racism, and Rep. Christian Menefee, 37.
Both incumbents have been forced to face off for the Democratic nomination following the state’s latest round of redistricting.
Another indication of the potency of Trump’s continued hold on the party could be the race in Texas between Republican Rep. Dan Crenshaw and his rival, state Rep. Steve Toth.
Crenshaw has openly supported many of Trump’s policies, including his decision to launch a war with Iran, but has criticized several figures in the president’s orbit.
He is the only Republican candidate for the House of Representatives in Texas who has not had Trump’s endorsement.
