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Opinion
The dead Ali Khamenei hands the Iranian flag to a mirror image of his son, Mojtaba Khamenei. From the website https://english.khamenei.ir/
– The war between the United States and Israel against Iran could be like playing with a hornet’s nest, spreading fear and chaos everywhere. The Israeli government claimed that the war was a “preventive” measure to deal with the immediate threat of Iran building a nuclear bomb. However, this war had obviously been planned meticulously over a long period of time and now seemed like the right time to put this plan into action. Iranian air defenses had been weakened by previous strikes, while recent Israeli strikes beheaded the Lebanese leaders of Hezbollah, Iran’s allies north of Israel. With Gaza destroyed and the unreliable Assad in Syria gone, Netanyahu had managed to secure his party’s coalition with the far right and could continue to count on the support of the Trump Administration, giving Israel a free hand against the Palestinians and turning a blind eye to the massacre of civilians. The United States continually supports Israel with missile defense systems, coordination, cooperation and intelligence sharing.
It appears as if US and Israeli forces now intend to bomb everything in Iran, from its top leaders to police stations, in the hope that Iran will exhaust its defense capabilities. The attackers also claim that they intend to achieve a change in the Iranian regime. However, even if Iran’s ninety-two million people are now caught between a bloody war and a repressive regime, it is highly unlikely that a tolerant government will emerge from a battered version of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Such a state is more likely to be governed by leaders even more determined to hold on to their power after gaining more confidence after overcoming a terrible crisis. The United States’ actions appear to be more improvised than those of Israel and appear to have not learned from the failure of Afghanistan, that is, from the difficulties of achieving and maintaining regime change by military means.
The US government rejoiced at the assassination of Ali Khamenei, a mid-ranking cleric who did not meet the constitutional requirements to be a marjathat is, a cleric qualified to make legal decisions for his followers and clerics lower in rank than him. Instead, during his 36 years and six months in power, Khamenei was forced to rely on his close ties to the powerful. Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). Now, even though the father of the Iranian revolution, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, had declared that “hereditary succession is sinister, evil and invalid,” Khamenei’s son has been chosen as Supreme Leader. Until now Mojtaba Khamenei has acted in his father’s shadow and few Iranians have heard him speak. He has made no public appearance, never given a sermon or made any statement; simply by working closely with IRGC leaders.
While the iranian army acts as protector of the nation’s sovereignty, the IRGC “safeguards” the Islamic Republic. With more than 125,000 members, it serves as Iran’s coast guard, operates a media outlet called Sepah Newsand controls the nuclear program. From its origins as an ideological militia, the IRGC now controls almost all aspects of Iranian politics and economy (including the energy and food industries), as well as the nation’s social life. It has a volunteer paramilitary militia with 90,000 active troops. One of the branches of the IRGC is the Qods Forcewhich specializes in unconventional warfare and military intelligence operations.
The presence, terror and fear created by the IRGC has made it difficult to organize any internal opposition. In Iran there is nothing like African National Congress with leaders like Nelson Mandela. If a leader were to emerge from the mess created by the United States and Israel, it would most likely be a man like Alia Ardashir Larijani, a former IRGC commander who has a bachelor’s degree in science. in computer science and mathematics, as well as a doctorate in Western philosophy.
Larijani has been vice minister in several cabinets, head of the Republic’s broadcasting service and secretary of the Supreme National Security Council. Larijani was also Iran’s top nuclear envoy. However, in late March 2025 he stated that if Iran were attacked by the United States and Israel, the nation would have no choice but to develop nuclear weapons. Larijani is accused of playing a key role in the deadly crackdown on opposition protests that devastated the country in January this year. Since the end of December 2025, it is considered the de facto leader of Iran and after originally opposing the election of Mojtaba Khamenei, Larijani has now rallied his followers behind the newly elected Supreme Leader.
Apart from the fear of an internal collapse of the Islamic Republic of IranThere are concerns about the economic effects of the current war. Beyond the physical damage, epic fury has been quite costly for the Trump Administration, which has so far deployed nearly half of America’s air power and about a third of its naval assets. So far, the Pentagon has not released an official estimate of the cost of the war, but it is currently believed to be $2 billion a day. Meanwhile, stocks have plummeted around the world and the price of crude oil soared from $65 a barrel to $120 after the Strait of Hormuz, through which a fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied gas passes, was effectively closed.
89 percent of Saudi Arabia’s oil shipments used to pass through the Strait, while Kuwait and Qatar shipped 100 percent, Iraq 97 percent, and the United Arab Emirates 66 percent. So far, Qatar has been the hardest hit, especially since it replaced Russia in liquefied gas exports to Europe. Kuwait has now been forced to suspend its production and export of crude oil and liquefied natural gas (of which it is second only to the United States as the world’s largest supplier).
The winners of this situation are the large net energy exporters outside the Gulf, whose ability to sell abroad is not affected, such as Norway, Russia and Canada, and to a lesser extent Nigeria and Angola. And no less important is that the United States is a winner thanks to its growing fracking industry. At the other end of the spectrum are economies where energy imports account for a large proportion of their GDP. This group includes countries such as South Korea, Taiwan, Japan, India and China, as well as most European economies, including France, Germany and the United Kingdom.
There has even been speculation that the war against Iran is a means by the United States to damage China’s economy. In 2025, China bought more than 80 percent of the oil sent to Iran, about 12 percent of China’s crude oil imports, while about 3 percent came from Venezuela (now subjugated by the United States).
In 2021, China and Iran signed a 25-year strategic partnership, meaning China promised to invest $400 billion in exchange for keeping Iranian oil flowing. China does not view its “alliances” the same way as the West, meaning its government does not sign mutual defense treaties and will not rush to the aid of its allies. However, an unpredictable and dysfunctional player like the United States has become under the Trump administration is a major source of concern for Beijing. Concerns were worsened by the fact that China’s annual economic growth target has reached its lowest level since 1991. Even as Beijing continues its rapid development of high-tech and renewable energy industries, the country is currently struggling with low levels of consumption, a prolonged housing crisis and huge local debt.
A large economy like China’s, as well as other rich nations, could find ways to mitigate rising oil prices, but it is much worse for smaller, poorer nations. Disruptions to energy supplies as a result of protracted conflict will have much greater economic ramifications in the Global South than in the West. As an example, a country like Bangladesh, which is particularly dependent on Middle Eastern oil, especially for its textile industry, has already imposed daily limits on fuel sales after panic buying and stockpiling raised concerns about supply. Additionally, approximately 13 million Bangladeshi expatriates currently support the country’s economic stability through their remittances; Of them, 8 million live and work in the Middle East.
The same is true for Pakistan, with more than 11 million Pakistanis living and working abroad, mainly in the Gulf States. In January 2025 alone, the country received $3 billion in remittances, reflecting a 25 percent year-on-year increase. Additionally, Pakistan shares a 900-kilometer border with Iran and Iran’s collapse into civil war is a constant concern for Pakistan, which also maintains a military relationship with Saudi Arabia with approximately 1,500 to 2,000 Pakistani troops stationed in the kingdom. If the situation worsens and Saudi infrastructure is further affected, it is only a matter of time before Saudi Arabia asks Pakistan to contribute to its defense. Pakistan’s border areas with Iran and its huge Shia population (generally well disposed towards fellow believers across the border) are already highly volatile and if internal conflicts within Iran spread beyond the border, the consequences for Pakistan would be serious. Furthermore, Pakistan is recently embroiled in a war with Afghanistan. On March 6, Pakistan carried out airstrikes in more than twenty locations across Afghanistan, while the Taliban attacked dozens of Pakistani border posts.
Other nations neighboring Iran are equally nervous. In Turkmenistan prices have almost doubled compared to pre-war levels. With an average salary of around $714, a large portion of the population is hard hit, as Turkmenistan imports a considerable amount of industrial products from Iran, such as steel, construction materials and petrochemicals, as well as food and household items that provide a critical livelihood for many of its residents.
Türkiye is also alarmed by the current situation and worries about what will happen if Iran collapses into warring factions. If the US-Israel confrontation with Iran deepens, particularly in ways that involve regime change with a spillover effect on Turkey, or security implications as a result of increased US-Israel cooperation with hostile Kurdish militants, this war could quickly become another dividing line in US-Turkish relations.
In short: the US and Israeli attack on Iran is highly unlikely to result in regime change, but could instead result in a chaotic and bloody collapse of the entire country. War is a high-stakes game that could have dangerous effects not only on Iran and its immediate neighbors, but also on the entire world.
IPS UN Office
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