Bitcoin is trying to hold the $70,000 level as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East inject fresh uncertainty into global financial markets. The asset started trading above $74,000 last week, but experienced a sharp price revision as investors reacted to the escalation of tensions around the Strait of Hormuz, a key global energy hub. As the conflict is likely to continue, markets have quickly adjusted expectations and created volatility in risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.
Energy-related geopolitical shocks can act as a transmission channel for broader macroeconomic disruptions, according to a recent CryptoQuant report. Increases that threaten global oil supply often reinforce inflationary pressures and increase capital costs throughout the financial system. These dynamics are forcing investors to reassess expectations of monetary policy, particularly regarding the trajectory of interest rates and liquidity conditions.
On Thursday, March 5, tensions related to Hormuz caused a sudden increase in prices in the markets. Bitcoin, which was trading comfortably above the $74,000 level earlier in the week, fell sharply as the market digested the implications of a potentially protracted conflict and its impact on the global macroeconomic environment.
Despite the volatility, the internal Bitcoin market structure seems to show a degree of stability. While macro risks are being priced in across global markets and affecting expectations of the Federal Reserve, chain trends indicate that underlying demand remains active and indicate that market participants are approaching the current environment with more selective capital allocation strategies.
The energy shock is triggering an ETF breakout, while the data shows stability in the chain
The report further explains that the geopolitical upheaval surrounding global energy supply has triggered immediate reactions in traditional and crypto markets. Several macro indicators show the magnitude of the shock. Bitcoin ETFs recorded net outflows of about $139.2 million on March 5, reflecting a quick shift toward risk aversion among institutional investors. At the same time, energy markets reacted strongly: Brent crude rose to $85.41 and WTI reached $81.01, indicating that traders are pricing in potential logistics disruptions.
The ripple effect extends beyond energy markets. U.S. gasoline prices rose about $0.27 a gallon for the week, showing how quickly supply shocks are being passed on to consumers. Meanwhile, fertilizer prices have also started to rise, creating a double whammy that threatens global food supply chains.
Despite this macro-fueled liquidity drain, the structure of the Bitcoin chain is showing signs of stability. The report highlights Bitcoin Exchange Netflow (Total) metric as a key indicator of market liquidity. When adjusted using a 7-day moving average to filter out daily noise, the exchange rate remains clearly negative even in the face of global risk sentiment.
The latest daily data shows a net balance of about -501 BTC leaving the exchange, while the cumulative weekly outflow has reached about -6,469 BTC. This suggests that long-term holders are not looking for immediate liquidity. Instead, coins are moving into cold storage, reducing available supply and limiting near-term selling pressure as the market navigates the broader macro shock.
Bitcoin is testing the long-term support after the market price
The weekly chart shows Bitcoin trading near $69,700 as the market tries to stabilize after a sharp correction from the late 2025 highs. After reaching above $110,000 at the peak of the rally, BTC entered a corrective phase marked by highs and increased volatility. The recent decline pushed the price to the $65,000 area, prompting buyers to come in and attempt the current recovery around $70,000.
Technically, Bitcoin is currently positioned between several major moving averages that determine the broader trend. The price is currently trading above the 50-week moving average, which is near the $90,000 area and is now acting as dynamic resistance. Meanwhile, the 100-week moving average is hovering around the mid-$80,000 area, reinforcing the upward pressure that has emerged since the breakout earlier this year.
On the downside, the 200-week moving average continues to trend higher near the $58,000-$60,000 range and is a key long-term support level for the current period. Historically, this moving average has served as a structural floor during major market corrections.
From a macro perspective, Bitcoin remains in a broader multi-year trend despite recent declines. The current consolidation around $70,000 indicates that the market is trying to establish a new base of support before determining whether the next move will be a deeper correction or a new attempt to recover higher levels.
Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com
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