Bitcoin’s long-term structure has always been viewed in terms of its halving period, and one crypto expert believes that this pattern points to a clear bottom for the price.
Analysis in the center of a repeating rhythm based on time is associated with each halving event and it provides a specific window when accumulation will resume. Crypto expert Blockchainedbb predicted that the stage of Bitcoin may enter another phase of structural recovery which takes a while and it may take until the 4th quarter of 2024 before the best time to buy BTC is found.
Bitcoin rule 135-week before half
The time frame is based on a recurring pattern observed before the Bitcoin halving event, highlighted by expert Blockchainedbb. According to his analysis, each of Bitcoin’s previous major period lows was formed around 135 weeks before noon.
Weekly chart shared in the analysis shows previous halving dates, including May 11, 2020 and April 19, 2024, and overlays green accumulation zones around long-term profitable breakeven points. Price compression in these areas occurred in previous periods before explosive bullish moves that eventually led to new all-time highs.
Using the same calculation, Blockchainedbb estimates that the next meaningful bottom could occur at the end of the 4th quarter of this year. The expected price range for this floor is between 50,000 and 58,000 dollars. This range is obtained by extrapolating the structure of the current period from the bottom of the previous half-year period.
If the pattern repeats, it means that Bitcoin will continue to trade at a series of lows for most of the year, so position Q4 as a rallying window before further sustained highs.
Q2 and Q3: Trader’s Market
Under this approach, Q1 and Q4 are considered by the expert as key windows for investors who want to build long-term exposure. Q4 appears as the potential step down, while Q1 is Investors are expected to withdraw for an estimated price of $75,000.
On the other hand, Bitcoin price history shows that the remaining quarters, Q2 and Q3, are environments that are better suited for active short-term traders than for long-term holders. According to the expert, Q2 and Q3 were always characterized by directional movements and breakdowns below key technical levels, especially the 200-week exponential moving average for altcoins. During these stages, short-term positions and tactical trading are dominant.
Therefore, a more positive long-term technical outlook is expected for investors favorable structural window in the fourth quarter of 2026. As is known, the next Bitcoin halving is scheduled to take place in April 2028. It happens at block height 850,000, reducing the block reward from 3.125 to 1.5625 BTC.
Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com
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