The price of Bitcoin is playing the same playbook that led to the 400% increase, but there is a catch

If history repeats itself, Bitcoin could easily go above $300,000.

Well-known analyst Merlijn The Trader noted in a recent article on X that the current setup of bitcoin is somewhat similar to its market behavior at the end of 2022, when the asset actually rose from the bottom to the top by triple digits.

In order to even have a theoretical chance of doing so, Merlijn would need to maintain a key level of BTC.

385% Speed ​​in production?

His analysis noted that Bitcoin already fulfilled this playbook three years ago, which is evident from the decrease in compression and the liquidity of public purchases. He believes this setup will trap late sellers and BTC price will eventually reverse after it completes.

Merlijn explained that the last time this happened, the price of BTC went from $15,000 to $73,000. A similar price increase of 385% could send the cryptocurrency to over $300,000.

Obviously, such a scenario is hard to imagine right now and may sound like a long shot, but Merlijn noted that BTC could resume a very impressive rally as long as it holds the key $65,000 level. If it is not, then it will continue with the liquidity search phase.

Bitcoin was running the same playbook as November 2022.

Decreasing compression. Purchase liquidity.
Trap late sellers. Then vice versa.

Last time it was resolved: BTC went from $15k to $73k.

Keep $65K: The base is complete.
Lose it: The liquidity purge continues.

The market is chasing liquidity… pic.twitter.com/BDPICGhWYS

– Merlijn The Trader (@MerlijnTrader) March 14, 2026

He doubled down in a subsequent post where every major BTC cycle started with a bear trap. In previous examples, such as the huge periods in 2013, 2016 and 2020, the price increases were quite spectacular – 24,000%, 6,300% and 842% respectively.

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The analyst noted that the pattern does not change because fear is always the first stage of a rally. And, as recently reported, fear has dominated the crypto market for several months in a row.

Still a bear cycle

Meanwhile, Doctor Profit, among the most prominent crypto analysts who have been calling for this correction for months, acknowledged BTC’s recent pump to $74,000. However, he argued that this is likely to be a short-term bullish move before “we see another decline” to new lows.

The cryptocurrency actually rejected $74,000 for the second time in the last 10 days and is now struggling to stay above $70,000.

#Bitcoin is rising rapidly and strongly, exactly as predicted. Expect more upside before we see another pullback to new lows. In the meantime, let’s enjoy a fake pump together that lasts a few weeks!

— Dr. Profit 🇨🇭 (@DrProfitCrypto) March 13, 2026