Four-term Republican U.S. Sen. John Cornyn is fighting for his political life against Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton in a bitter primary race that will likely end in a runoff.
As polls began to close across the Lone Star State on Tuesday night, national Republicans were openly concerned that a victory by Paxton, a scandal-plagued conservative culture warrior and darling of Donald Trump’s Maga movement, would give Democrats a rare opportunity in a solidly Republican state.
Republicans, including the National Republican Senatorial Committee, have already spent tens of millions of dollars defending Cornyn. Donors are likely to be pressured to spend millions more if the race is forced into a 10-week runoff.
So far, Trump has not weighed in, praising all three candidates during a visit to Texas last week. They have all boasted about their closeness to the president, and Cornyn highlighted his record of voting in favor of the president’s agenda. In recent weeks, he has also touted his electability, warning that his rival would jeopardize Republicans’ chances of holding the seat in November.
But Paxton has survived years of legal, political and ethical scandals, including impeachment by the Republican-controlled Texas House of Representatives on charges of bribery, breach of public trust and obstruction of justice. In the Senate, the vote fell short of the two-thirds majority needed for conviction.
Paxton has led in most polls and appears poised to end Cornyn’s 24-year Senate career. The remaining question, many observers believe, is not whether he will win, but whether he will win outright, capturing more than 50% in a race that also includes right-wing Rep. Wesley Hunt.
“If all of you would please go out and tell your friends, drag them to the polls and let’s get this over with on Tuesday,” Paxton told supporters in Waco. “Let’s do this without a second round.”
Even as Trump’s approval ratings falter and voters sour over his handling of the economy and immigration, Texas Republicans have remained fiercely loyal to the president. In 2024, Trump won the state by nearly 14 percentage points, improving his margins with the boost of Latino voters.
In an interview with CBS, Cornyn admitted that it would be “a challenge” if “only the most radical people” voted in the Texas Republican primary.
Washington Republicans have warned that Paxton would force the party to divert resources from other key Senate races to protect a seat long considered safe and red.
“Honestly, if you look at the polls in a general election environment, I don’t think it’s outside the realm of possibility for the seat to (change), depending on who the Democrats nominate,” Senate Majority Leader John Thune told Politico in a recent interview.
