It is clear that the latest war between the United States, Israel and Iran will fundamentally change Middle East politics. Less obvious is its immediate impact on American politics, especially the 2026 midterm elections and the durability of American support for Israel.
While the core of US President Donald Trump’s base has come out in favor of joint US-Israeli attacks, some influential figures on the American right have denounced them. These condemnations have heightened tensions already at play within the MAGA (Make America Great Again) base and dovetail with conservative concerns about Israel’s influence over US foreign policy.
With the midterm elections approaching, this is not a good time for division within the party. Conservative disputes over war with Iran and broader support for Israel could cost Republicans in November.
The stakes are high for Republicans: All 435 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives and 35 of the 100 seats in the Senate will be on the ballot, and Republicans currently control both chambers of Congress. Congressional control will determine whether Trump’s agenda advances, how strongly a Democratic majority could engage the White House through oversight, and how secure Israel’s position will remain in Washington.
The ‘Israel War’ and MAGA Dissent
In the days leading up to Saturday’s initial attacks, influential right-wing journalist Tucker Carlson, a prominent critic of Israel’s influence over the US government, repeatedly warned against a military escalation.
On his show Thursday, broadcast to tens of millions of followers on social media, Carlson argued that Israel was pushing the United States into a conflict to ensure absolute hegemony in the Middle East.
On Monday night, Carlson commented on the initial phase of the war, doubling down on his pre-war analysis, calling the war “Israel’s war” and arguing that it only “happened because Israel wanted it to happen.”
Other prominent conservatives have criticized the war. Former Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene posted on X that the attacks were “murdering (Iranian) children” and were contrary to the “America First” agenda.
Conservative commentator Candace Owens has published more than a dozen posts arguing that Israel goaded the United States into battle.
The opinions of Carlson, Greene and Owens are important. All three have tens of millions of followers on social media and represent influential voices within the MAGA movement. Their criticisms signal a growing divide over the Republican political program.
Megyn Kelly, Matt Walsh and the Hodge Twins, among other influential MAGA figures, have also condemned the war as a betrayal of “America First” principles.
An undercurrent in recent conservative criticism is the claim that Trump’s decision to go to war contradicts the founding principles of MAGA. To make this point, right-wing commentators have resurrected old statements and social media posts from Trump administration figures, including Trump, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Vice President JD Vance, and Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard, among others.
For example, as president-elect in 2016, Trump said that under his leadership, the United States would “stop racing to overthrow…foreign regimes.” Additionally, in numerous tweets in 2012 and 2013, Trump suggested that then-President Barack Obama would attack Iran to distract from domestic problems, shore up his re-election bid, or offset declining poll numbers.
In 2023, Vance lamented the US invasion of Iraq as a “disaster” and said that “America’s foreign policy is still hostage to men… (who) will support the next war, and then the next, until (the) country is emptied.” In 2024, Vance condemned the idea of war with Iran.
In both 2016 and 2020, Gabbard lashed out at “warmongers.” In a 2020 interview, Gabbard said that an “all-out war with Iran would make the wars we’ve seen in Iraq and Afghanistan look like a picnic.”
By bringing these archival statements to light, critics argue not only that war with Iran is wrong, but that it violates the ideological commitments on which the MAGA coalition was built.
A fractured party
Even before the Iran war, Republicans were more divided than at any time in recent history. For nearly two years, Carlson, Owens, Greene and many others have criticized Republican policy toward Israel and the Palestinians. The decision to go to war with Iran, ostensibly on behalf of Israel, has further amplified the divide.
Some conservatives, including influential white nationalist Nick Fuentes, are so angry that they have suggested voting Democratic instead of Republican in the midterm elections.
If these calls gain traction, Republican prospects in the midterm elections could be in jeopardy.
Recent polls suggest Republicans have reason to be worried.
A Reuters news agency poll taken after the start of military operations suggests that only about a quarter of Americans approve of Trump’s decision to go to war. Perhaps most worrying for Trump is that only 55 percent of Republicans approve of him. That’s a remarkably low number, especially compared to George W. Bush’s more than 90 percent Republican support for his invasion of Iraq in March 2003.
All of this is significant because historically midterm elections have served as referendums on the sitting president and his party. All House members face voters every two years, and the president’s party almost always loses seats in midterm cycles, especially when a president’s approval rating is below 50 percent. Trump, whose approval rating has hovered between 36 and 38 percent, recently became the first president with an approval rating below 50 percent in both his first term and the first year of his second term.
Even before the war with Iran, early electoral barometers favored Democrats. In 2025, Democratic candidates racked up a series of victories, sweeping the gubernatorial election and winning local races in several areas, providing a key midterm boost.
A changing political landscape
Iran may prove to be the latest battleground in a broader transformation of American public opinion about Israel.
For decades, Americans have been much more sympathetic to Israelis than to Palestinians; On average, between 2001 and 2018, Israelis had a 43 percent lead in Gallup polls.
However, last week a Gallup poll suggested – for the first time in its history – that American sympathies lie more toward the Palestinians than toward the Israelis.
Importantly, the change has been largely driven by shifts in Republican sympathies. Since 2024, support for Israel has fallen 10 percent among Republicans.
This is crucial because Republican voters have long formed the backbone of support for Israel in the United States. If Republican support weakens, Israel’s unique protection in American politics could weaken with it.
When the dust settles on the war with Iran, many Americans may come to see the conflict through the same lens as Carlson, Owens, Greene and others: as a war waged in the name of Israel.
If the war is long and costly, as Trump indicated Monday it could be, that perception will harden.
The 2026 midterm elections, then, may serve not only as a referendum on Trump and the Republicans, but also on the “special relationship” the United States has with Israel.
Trump has called himself “Israel’s best friend… they’ve ever had.” You may believe you are helping an old friend, but a war waged to achieve absolute regional hegemony for Israel could, paradoxically, weaken its most important source of strength: US backing.
If Republican divisions over Iran translate into losses in Congress, the consequences will not be limited to Trump’s agenda. A Congress reshaped by voter reaction may end up being less reflexively supportive of pro-Israel policies.
Israel’s genocide in Gaza has already transformed American public opinion about Israel and strained the foundations of American support in ways that were previously unthinkable. The war against Iran could be the straw that breaks the camel’s back, not only for Trump’s party, but also for the political consensus that has long guaranteed US support for Israel.
The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial position of Al Jazeera.
