A crypto market analyst has shared a new technical analysis that explains the reasons why the price of Bitcoin has not yet recovered. the end of the cycle. Using a chart framework called Bear Bands along with the theory of halving cycles, the analyst argues that while the short-term bounce is currently underway, a broader bear market it still has significant time and more downsides to reach the final price level.
Why hasn’t the price of Bitcoin gone down yet?
According to market expert Crypto Con on X, recently The jump that saw the growth of Bitcoind over $71,000 after its first major low below $64,000 is a normal reaction and does not indicate that the Bitcoin bear market is over. Analyst stated that everything was exactly as expected, both in terms of time and price, according to the theory of halving cycles. He further noted that the price is exactly at the first level of the Bear Bands indicator, really reinforcing his opinion. An incredible situation for Bitcoin.
Related reading
By sharing a detailed price chart, Crypto Con traces the complete history of Bitcoin’s price dating back to 2011, mapping the repeated sequences of bear markets that have played out in each major period. Each of these periods followed a sequential three-phase structure, going through a first low, a second low, and a final period bottom before any sustained recovery took place. Based on this sequence, Crypto Con argues that the Bitcoin market has not yet bottomed out, but could soon be headed for the market.
The Bear Bands framework on the chart places Bitcoin’s first low around $64,000, a level already reached in February. The second lowest for the current period is projected near $44,500, indicating that the world’s largest cryptocurrency there are still big shortcomings ahead before the next major support is even tested.
Below this level, Crypto Con has set BTC’s cycle low at around $28,500 the final and deepest level envisaged before genuine change can be considered. While current prices are currently above $72,000, a drop to $28,500 would be a staggering drop of over 60%, reinforcing the analyst’s belief that the bear market is far from over.
Predicted chart for BTC bearish bottom
In addition to the price reduction targets, table below presented in the Crypto Con analysis offers an exciting prospect for investors and traders hoping for a quick recovery. The analyst predicted that the second lowest of around $44,500 is not expected for at least another five months from his tenure.
Related reading
This puts Bitcoin’s next price crash roughly in the August to October 2026 window, as shown in the chart. If this timeline is met, it will be all hope for the ultimate bottom line well after mid-2026.
If the expected period bottom at $28,500 occurs, Crypto Con expects it to arrive no later than three months after the second decline. This points to the period from November 2026 to January 2027 as the first window in which Bitcoin can actually find its original price level before. begins construction for recovery.
Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com
