The analyst raises 80 thousand dollars

Bitcoin has shrugged off geopolitical turmoil to trade above $70k, with analysts pointing to stability as an upside signal.

Bitcoin (BTC) was trading just above the $70,000 level today, shrugging off weeks of geopolitical turmoil fueled by a conflict pitting the US and Israel against Iran to gain nearly 4% in the past 24 hours.

Now, analyst Markus Thielen argues that the crypto-currency’s refusal to break under this pressure is itself a bullish signal, raising the possibility of a return to the $70,000 to $80,000 range.

BTC has absorbed the pressure

In his daily chart note for Matrixport, Thielen noted that since the beginning of February, BTC has traded mostly sideways, despite being buffeted by headwinds such as weak US employment numbers, a sell-off in Korean stocks and a significant increase in oil prices over the weekend.

He noted that Bitcoin only retreated to the $66,000 level and finally found support, even as oil prices briefly rose to $120 on fears of closing the Strait of Hormuz to Iran.

“As markets begin to gradually ease the Iran conflict,” Thielen wrote, “Bitcoin is likely to see geopolitical noise that should support a move into this higher trading range.”

This sentiment was supported by the wider news cycle, with reports emerging on March 9 that US President Donald Trump had said the war was “too full and too much”. Oil prices fell back below $90 a barrel shortly after his remarks, with gold hitting $5,140 an ounce and the S&P 500 above 6,800.

Bitcoin was not far behind, jumping to around $69,600 before reaching $69,000 for the day. Its current CoinGecko data shows a 24-hour range of around $67,000 to $71,200, with assets now just above $70,500.

The price rose 3% from 7 days ago and more than 10% in 2 weeks. However, BTC is still down about 15% year-to-date and is down more than 44% in October 2025, when it broke above $126,000.

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A bearish market sets the stage for a move higher

One of the reasons analysts are watching the current structure closely is the significant decline that has occurred. As we discussed earlier, CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost noted that since February, the estimated Bitcoin leverage ratio on Binance has fallen from 0.198 to 0.152 as the OG crypto has fallen from $96,000 to around $69,000.

According to market experts, lower leverage usually means less systemic pressure, which can help stabilize price action before the market enters a new directional phase.

Interestingly, the cleaner leverage profile appears to be associated with a futures market that relies on shorts. According to Binance Research, open interest has risen nearly 18% since the end of February, returning from $30 billion, while funding rates have remained low to negative.

This combination means that much of the current open interest is from short positions, and if BTC goes higher, forced short covering could accelerate any rally.